309
FXUS64 KAMA 142329
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
629 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
-A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
WHERE DAMAGING WINDS FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
-HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 100-105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS
OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WHERE HEAT HEADLINES
FOR PALO DURO CANYON MAYBE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
LATEST 18Z SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A FEEBLE PERTURBATION
ROUNDING THE APEX OF A GROWING H500 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SW COLORADO. DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES RANGE, SOME
CU HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WEAK BUT
NOTABLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS BEING NOTED BY THE LATEST 18Z OBS,
POTENTIALLY DUE TO RESIDUAL COLD POOLS FROM YESTERDAY'S
CONVECTION. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD HELP TO DEVELOP A STORM
OR TWO WITH CAPE OF 500-100 J/KG, BUT VERY ANEMIC SHEAR. LATEST
HI- RES MODEL DATA IS FORECASTING ABOUT 2000 J/KG TOO HIGH OF
INSTABILITY VALUES VS. THE 18Z RAOB AMA SOUNDING THAT SHOWS SB/ML
CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 J/KG WITH DCAPE VALUES OVER 1600 J/KG. WITH
ESTABLISHED LIMITED CAPE AND EVEN MORE LIMITED SHEAR, THE
PERIPHERAL H500 PERTURBATION WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CATALYST FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF THEY SURVIVE THE
TRIP INTO THE PLAINS, THE NW PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE (~20%) CHANCE OF
SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT, BUT COULD ALSO SEE
SOME HAIL WITH MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
TONIGHT SHOULD DEVELOP LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS KANSAS AND FOLLOW
THE BETTER SHEAR GRADIENT ON THE EDGE OF THE H500 HIGH. LINEAR
STORMS SHOULD FOLLOW THIS GRADIENT SE INTO NW OKLAHOMA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE OVERNIGHT
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
A MORE POTENT H500 TROUGH MOVING SE ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHERE THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME AREAS IN THE TX PANHANDLE COULD
REACH 100 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
THE MAIN H500 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS FROM SW TO NE WHERE THE BETTER PERTURBATIONS SHOULD
STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE LATEST 14/12Z
MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES TUESDAY EVENING FROM A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE 95-105 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A FRONT BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COMING WEEK. SOME HEAT
HEADLINES MAYBE NEEDED FOR PALO DURO CANYON FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACH 105 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
DESPITE PRESENT RADAR AND SATELLITE SEEING THUNDERSTORMS BUILD IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NEW MEXICO, CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS
TO TERMINAL IS ON THE LOW SIDE. AS IT STANDS, THESE PRESENT STORMS
HAVE STRUGGLE IN MAKING IT TO THE STATELINE WITH THE ONES THAT
HAVE CURRENTLY WEAKENING. POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR MORE STORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER WITH CURRENT CAMS STRUGGLING WITH PRESENT WEATHER
AND CONFIDENCE TOO LOW, HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
CURRENT PACKAGE. FOR NOW, EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO STAY VFR THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...11
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