401
FXUS64 KAMA 151035
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
535 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS LOCATED FROM NEAR STINNETT OVER
TO THE OK STATE LINE AND THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH
SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
UNSUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. HAVE UPDATED POPS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT.
MUSCHA
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
- HOT TO VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-90S TO LOW-100S.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS--POTENTIALLY A MCS--MAY BE
ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, BUT
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS PANS OUT, THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES COMPARED TO
ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. FOR THAT REASON THE NBM LOOKS OVERZEALOUS WITH
THE LOW-90 DEGREE HIGHS ESPECIALLY IF IT TAKES UNTIL THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OUT OF THE CLOUDS. HAVE THEREFORE
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS USING CONSSHORT WHICH PRIMARILY LOWERS
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLES.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE MID-90S TO LOW-100S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DRY AIR WILL USHER INTO MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE EASTERN EXTENT, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE UPPER-90S TO LOW-100S. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURE OR
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SUCH AS A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND PALO DURO CANYON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING AND PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH--PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY TO "COOL" BACK TOWARD THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE OF UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S, BUT THAT WON'T LAST
LONG. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FAVORED TO QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND EXPAND EAST,
RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALSO
SUPPORTS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
NEAR KGUY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS MAY LEAD TO
SPORADIC GUSTS AT THE SITES FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS FOR THE REST OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR OUT DURING THIS TAF CYCLE.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...05
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