296
FXUS64 KAMA 151912
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
212 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
-AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
-TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHERE
HEAD ADVISORIES MAYBE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
LATEST 18Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A SERIES OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE TRAVERSE THE COMBINED PANHANDLES INITIALLY
MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH, AND NOW SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST.
BEHIND THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COLD POOLS FROM THE
CONVECTION, LOW LEVEL STABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN ITS WAKE.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SURFACE BASED LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY. STARTING THIS
EVENING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW,
LATEST HI-RES MODEL DATA ARE SHOWING ANOTHER MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
ROUNDING THE H500 HIGH OFF ITS APEX IN THE CENTRAL AND THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY GIVE THE WESTERN PANHANDLES ABOUT A 20%
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FROM APPROXIMATELY THE 01-02Z
THROUGH AROUND 08Z. A STORM OR TWO COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT, IF THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN SURVIVE THE
TRIP INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE ROCKIES. GOING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW, THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS THE MAIN H500 HIGH
SLOWLY BUILDS FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AREA WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 90S TO 100-103 DEGREE RANGE. WITH NEW HI-RES DATA COMING
IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WE COULD BE ISSUING HEAT ADVISORIES,
ESPECIALLY FOR PALO DURO CANYON AND SOME PORTIONS ALONG THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY AS EARLY AS TOMORROW (10-40% CHANCE OF
REACHING 105 DEGREES).
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. H850 30C-34C
TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLES BRINGING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE MID 90S IN THE NW PANHANDLES TO
100-108 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A 15-25% CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PANHANDLES. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID JUNE BEFORE WARMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE A THUNDERSTORM WITH ERRATIC
WINDS. BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 5-15
KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page