323
FXUS64 KAMA 182325
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
625 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
-COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THEN
TEMPERATURES WARM RIGHT BACK INTO THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S ONCE
AGAIN THU ONWARD.
-LOOKING MAINLY DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY, MODEL AGREEMENT IS
EXPECTING THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO REBOUND
TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THIS REBOUND WILL SEE DRY AND HOT
WEATHER RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS DRIER
WEATHER MAY BE THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE PANHANDLES.
CURRENTLY, THERE ARE A FEW CAMS THAT HAVE SUGGESTED THAT A ROUGE
THUNDERSTORM MAY BRUSH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE IN A
STORM ACTUALLY BEING PRESENT IS LOW WITH CURRENT CHANCES SITTING
AROUND 10% OR LESS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS LOOK TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK FOR THE
PANHANDLES AS THE PRESENT UPPER-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
BESIDES THE DRIER WEATHER, THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO SEE
THE THE PANHANDLES QUICKLY HEAT UP WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE HIGH 90S FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, OUR HOTTER LOCATIONS, LIKE THE
PALO DURO CANYON, COULD BE OVER THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK WITH
CONCERNS FOR HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS NOT TOO FAR OFF FOR THE CANYON.
HOWEVER, THERE MIGHT BE SOME LIGHT RELIEF PRESENT BOTH OF THE
AFTERNOONS THAT COULD KEEP US FROM NEEDING THOSE PRODUCTS. AS IT
STANDS MODELS ARE EXPECTING A NEW TROUGH TO SLOWLY BUILD OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER. WHILE THIS TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO KICK UP ANY ACTIVITY
FOR THE PANHANDLES INITIALLY, IT WILL FORCE THE PRESENT UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH TO MOVE EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS. MOVING INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE OF AN ACTIVE
IMPACT FORM THE INCOMING TROUGH AS MODEL AGREEMENT SEES US IN A
UNIQUE SET UP WITH THE CLOSE HIGH TO EAST AND THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THIS SET UP WILL BE INTERESTING AS IT WILL ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE OUT OF BOTH OF THE GULFS IN AN ALMOST MONSOON LIKE
FASHION. AT THIS TIME THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN HINTS OF
THIS HIGHER MOISTURE WITH A COUPLE OF THE NEWEST RUNS SEEING PWAT
VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES. THESE HIGH PWATS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO BE POSSIBLE CLEAR INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL RELATIVELY NEW WITH MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES
KEEPING AMOUNTS IN A MORE NORMAL RANGE. REGARDLESS, GUIDANCE DOES
SEE A 25 TO 45% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION PRESENT CLEAR INTO
TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL (15 TO 30%) TO KEEP GOING ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION, THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 10KTS BUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...28
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