886
FXUS64 KAMA 271101
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
601 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
-SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
-STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAIN FOCUS WITH STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, AND SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS, BUT STORM MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
GET A 60 MPH WIND GUST.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS WITHIN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
BERMUDA AZORES HIGH. THIS WILL KEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES WHICH WILL FUEL DAILY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY THIS IS CAUSING THE BANDS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLES
WITH LIGHTER RAIN EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. THESE
HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOOD CONCERN UNTIL THEY
DWINDLE DURING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL THEN LEAD TO
A CALMER MID TO LATE MORNING WITH JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. THEN WITH FURTHER
HEATING DURING THE DAY PROVIDING DESTABILIZATION FURTHER RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THERE
IS A SMALL SHIFT IN THE BERMUDA AZORES HIGHS THAT WILL SEE IT
BUILD IN STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. THIS SHOULD SERVE
TO LOWER THE COVERAGE OF THESE AFTERNOON TO EVENING STORMS.
HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE VERY HIGH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES (TOP 10% FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) SO ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WE HAVE
BEEN GETTING HEAVY RAINS FOR DAYS NOW. WITH THE LESSER COVERAGE OF
STORMS THE ODDS OF FLOODING OCCURRING ARE GENERALLY UNDER 15%,
BUT NOT ZERO. JUST LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THAT DO MANAGE TO FORM WILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS GOING INTO THE MORNING OF SATURDAY. SATURDAY
ITSELF WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF SEEING THE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO BUILD LOWERING THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. JUST LIKE TODAY ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO FORM
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH CAN CAUSE
FLOODING. THE BUILDING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL SEE THE
HIGHS GO INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL BE A VERY
MUGGY HEAT AS THERE IS STILL SO MUCH MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME HEAT CONCERN FOR THOSE WHO CANNOT
HANDLE A WET HEAT COMPARED TO THE MORE TYPICAL PANHANDLE DRY HEAT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
THE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF RETREATING COME
SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY TO ONCE AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IN TURN
WILL CAUSE A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE
PANHANDLES ANY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THE THREAT OF
FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. MONDAY WILL REPRESENT
A REPEAT DAY WITH THE SAME THREAT AS SUNDAY BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ANY ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN. THIS MEANS WE WILL KICK OFF NEXT
WEEK WITH AT LEAST TWO DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BETTER ODDS THAN NOT OF
BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN
WITH A LESSER COVERAGE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN AN EVER
PRESENT SPECTER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ALL IN ALL NEXT WEEK LOOKS
TO HAVE A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN PRODUCING REPETITIVE DAYS OF
SIMILAR WET AND STORMY WEATHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THE CHANCES OF THESE IMPACTING ANY
TERMINALS REMAIN LOW FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES AT KAMA. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FURTHER RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE PANHANDLES.
THESE ARE MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A LESSER CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MEANS ANY OF THESE
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT CAN CAUSE IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. ONCE THE STORMS
FORM THEY MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE CHANCE OF
THESE IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL DURING THIS TIME IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE
THESE STORMS WINDS WILL BE WEAKLY GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98
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