091
FXUS64 KAMA 272310
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
610 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL SLATED FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF NEXT WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE DUE TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OFF OF THE SHORTWAVE POSITIONED IN THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. BASED OFF DATA FROM OUR 18Z SOUNDING,
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO START OFF ISOLATED BUT THEN CONGEAL
AND BECOME SCATTERED THE FURTHER EAST THEY MOVE. IN THE EVENING,
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO HAVE A CHANCE TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, WITHOUT DAYTIME HEATING, STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL APART AS NIGHTFALL COMMENCES. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS TODAY ARE STILL TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS. THE ODDS OF ANY STORM PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ARE LOW, BUT NOT IMPROBABLE. DCAPE PROFILES TODAY SHOW
EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS, BUT THAT WOULD
REQUIRE THE STORMS TO GENERATE A ROBUST UPDRAFT AND BECOME
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED. THE LATTER OF THOSE REQUIREMENTS IS OUR
CONFIDENCE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
TOMORROW, THE H500 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SPREAD MORE ACROSS OUR
REGION. THUS, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
LIMITED. THOUGH NOT ALL HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING IT, WE BELIEVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
FAVORABLE THETA-E PROFILES. THEREFORE, POPS WERE ADDED TO THE
AREAS WE ANTICIPATED WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAILY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ARE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL OR AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOR THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER FLOODING AND EVEN FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO
NARROW DOWN THE LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. LOTS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING
THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW, HAVE LEFT OUT OF
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF INFLUENCE FROM SHOWERS/THUNDER,
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12 TO 15 KTS WITH MAYBE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS, ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS.
36
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...36
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