751
FXUS64 KAMA 280528
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
A SLIGHT BREAK SATURDAY BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES PRESENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE DUE TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
FOR ANOTHER NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE SEEING WEAK
SURFACE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOONAL SET UP. HOWEVER, THESE CHANCES ARE
GOING TO SLOWLY FADE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SEE THE SET UP BREAK
DOWN INTO A MORE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS FLOW WILL SEE THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT ALL WEEK START TO WANE AND PUSH BACK EAST, WHAT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED, HOWEVER, IS HOW QUICK OF AN EXIT THIS MOISTURE
ACTUALLY MAKES AS IT COULD STILL SPUR ON SOME STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, THE PRESENT NBM IS NOT TOO THRILL WITH
THE IDEA, BUT THE LATEST CAM ANALYSIS DOES TRIED TO START A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL, HAVE ADDED A LITTLE EXTRA TO THE
POPS, BUT STILL LEFT THEM 20% OR LESS.
MEANWHILE, CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS
WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MULTIPLE MODELS SEEING THE
FIRST OF MANY SHORT- WAVE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES.
AT THIS TIME LATEST GUIDANCE IS GIVING US A ROUGHLY 30 TO 50%
CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION, WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE
RETREATING BACK AND GIVING US PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.25 TO 1.4
INCHES. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL A LITTLE
QUESTIONABLE AS MANY OF THE CAMS DO SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO
2000 J/KG BUT LITTLE TO NO WIND SHEAR TO KEEP IT ORGANIZED.
REGARDLESS, SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO FOLLOW AS WE
SEE THE PANHANDLES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
A MORE STAGNATE PATTERN LOOKS TO FORM AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEK WITH MODELS SEEING A NEW UPPER-LEVEL HIGH BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, THIS STAGNATE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THAT WE CAN’T SEE PRECIPITATION WITH
MANY MODELS SEEING A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE 15 TO 35% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLEAR INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY. OF COURSE THESE CHANCES
WILL ALSO COME WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, THE
EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC SET MAY SEE CHANCES BEING SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW THIS WEEK, WHICH WAS HIGH CAPE VALUES THAT CAN CREATE QUICK
POP-UP STORMS BUT NO WIND SHEAR TO KEEP IT ORGANIZED OR SUSTAINED.
REGARDLESS THESE CHANCES WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURE DOWN
UNDER THIS STAGNATE PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STAYING IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S CLEAR INTO THE HOLIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THESE CHANCES ARE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BE REFLECTED IN ANY OF THE TAFS. HIGH MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
CAN LEAD TO LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF THESE
STORMS WINDS WILL BE WEAKLY GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98
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