472
FXUS64 KAMA 290524
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT INCREASING POTENTIAL
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEK WITH EACH DAY SEEING ROUGHLY 15 TO 40% CHANCES EACH
DAY.
INCREASING HEAT TOWARD THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE PRESENT ONCE AGAIN AS WE MOVE
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MULTIPLE MODELS SEEING THE FIRST OF
MANY SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS TIME
LATEST GUIDANCE IS GIVING US A ROUGHLY 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION, WITH THE HIGH CHANCES LOOKING TO FOLLOW IN LATE
EVENING HOURS THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ADD TO THIS
WILL BE SOME OF THE MOISTURE RETREATING BACK AND GIVING US PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.25 TO 1.4 INCHES THAT COULD LEAD TO MORE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL A LITTLE
QUESTIONABLE AS MANY OF THE CAMS DO SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO
2000 J/KG BUT LITTLE TO NO WIND SHEAR TO KEEP IT ORGANIZED.
REGARDLESS, THE COMBINED EFFORT OF THE EXCESS MOISTURE AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD SEE STORMS RUN INTO OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHEAST. MOVING INTO MONDAY, WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT FOR THE PANHANDLES
WITH MODELS SEEING A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE PUSH IN.
UNLIKE SUNDAY, LATEST CAM ANALYSIS IS SEEING BETTER WIND SHEAR
PRESENT, BUT WITH CAPE VALUES FALLING OFF INSTEAD. STILL, THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEE A STORM ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO CREATE SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD BE MORE FOCUSED ON WINDS.
REGARDLESS, THE PRESENCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES UNDER WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD SEE STORMS STAY PRESENT FOR MUCH OF MONDAY
WITH POTENTIAL TO ONCE AGAIN RUN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A MORE STAGNATE PATTERN LOOKS TO FORM AS WE INCH CLOSER TO THE
HOLIDAY WITH MODELS SEEING A NEW UPPER-LEVEL HIGH BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, THIS STAGNATE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THAT WE CAN’T SEE PRECIPITATION WITH
MANY MODELS SEEING A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER WHICH, WE
SEE A MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOW AND BREAK DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE HOLIDAY AND IT FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THESE TROUGHS
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE 15 TO 35% CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLEAR INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY AND THE
WEEKEND THAT FOLLOWS. OF COURSE THESE CHANCES WILL ALSO COME WITH
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, THE EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC
SET MAY SEE CHANCES BEING SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS WEEK, WHICH
WAS HIGH CAPE VALUES THAT CAN CREATE QUICK POP-UP STORMS BUT NO
WIND SHEAR TO KEEP IT ORGANIZED OR SUSTAINED. REGARDLESS THESE
CHANCES WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURE DOWN UNDER THIS STAGNATE
PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STAYING IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S CLEAR
INTO THE HOLIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THEN COME THIS AFTERNOON, EVENING, AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THE PANHANDLES. THERE IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE THAT THESE WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
DURING THIS TIME. THE STORMS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS DURING THEIR PASSAGE. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT THE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THESE STORMS CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR WITH
WEAKLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES THE WINDS
MAY SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY AND BE WEAK DURING THE EVENING BUT THE
CHANCES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BE REFLECTED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98
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