844
FXUS64 KAMA 291718
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEK WITH EACH DAY SEEING ROUGHLY 20% TO 40% CHANCE.
INCREASING HEAT TOWARD THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH SUPPRESSED HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES CAN BE INFERRED ON LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY, ONE
PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF KS INTO MO AND IA, WITH
ANOTHER LESS PRONOUNCED ROUNDING THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH IN MT
AND WY. AT THE SURFACE, AN OUTFLOW AUGMENTED COLD FRONT IS
BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS NORTHWEST KS INTO THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE CLIMBING QUICKLY INTO THE
80S AND EVEN LOW 90S AS OF 1600Z. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MAX
TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S GIVEN RECENT TRENDS.
HREF PROBABILITIES NOW SHOW 40-50% CHANCE OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
100 DEGREES IN THE OK PANHANDLE WHERE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN INVERTED-V MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ANY ROBUST UPDRAFT COULD RESULT
IN A MICROBURST (MEAN HREF DCAPE 1400-1600 J/KG). HOWEVER, LACKING
SHEAR AND SLOW STORM MOTION WILL KEEP THE AREAL SEVERE THREAT
LIMITED WITH POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS. PWATS AROUND THE 75TH
PERCENTILE COULD SUPPORT SOME HEAVY RAIN RATES, AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE SLOW STORM MOTION COULD RESULT IN AN LOCALIZED FLOOD
THREAT. LIFT IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS WHERE STORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING. SOME MODELS DO
WANT TO DEVELOP AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE PANHANDLES AS
EARLY AS 20Z THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SOME VERY LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
IN THE WIND FIELDS AND CONVECTIVE T EXCEEDANCE. OTHERWISE, WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR EVENING OR EVEN TONIGHT FOR STORMS TO ARRIVE OFF
THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH LIFT POSSIBLY BEING ENHANCED WITH SOME
INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN
TROUGH AND COMES ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT LOOKS LIKE KS WOULD HAVE
THE BEST LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE, BUT SOME VORTICITY MAY EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO AT LEAST KEEP STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTH TONIGHT
(LIKELY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW) AND COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS
TOMORROW. A THIS TIME, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS MAY FOCUS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES, BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD
AMOUNT OF VARIANCE IN THE OUTPUT. IT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW
ROBUST STORMS BECOME (BOTH IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND STRENGTH) THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, AND HOW MUCH OUTFLOW INFLUENCE CAN HELP PUSH
THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW, I HAVE MATCHED NEIGHBORS TO
REDUCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WHILE RETAINING THE
HIGHER NBM POPS FOR THE SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH PWATS REMAINING IN THE 75TH 90TH
PERCENTILE RANGE AND STORM MOTION REMAINING ON THE SLOW SIDE.
WARD
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR INCREASING
MOISTURE BOTH FROM THE MONSOON AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM WHAT
IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BARRY GOING INTO MID WEEK. PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR MAX DAILY VALUES TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THAT SAID, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME, BUT IT'S NOT SUPER STRONG
AND LOOKS TO BE OF THE DIRTY VARIETY WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE IN PLAY TUESDAY BEFORE WAA
TAKES OVER WED INTO THURS. THUS, WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE UNCERTAIN DUE TO
QUESTIONABLE LIFT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL LIMIT INSOLATION DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS
(WHICH MAY ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY). ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS,
AND STORM MOTION SHOULD REMAIN SLOW GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW.
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN THIS WEEK AND EVEN GOING INTO THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY
WHEN BETTER LIFT COULD BE PRESENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WARD
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THEN COME THIS AFTERNOON, EVENING, AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THE PANHANDLES. THIS IS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO BE A LINE THAT MOVES NW TO SE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE
THAT THESE WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. THE STORMS
CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS DURING
THEIR PASSAGE. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE THAT THE STORMS WILL
BECOME STRONG PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OUTSIDE OF
THESE STORMS CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR WITH WEAKLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES
WINDS SWITCH TO WEAKLY NORTHERLY.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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