652
FXUS64 KAMA 300657
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
157 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEK WITH EACH DAY SEEING ROUGHLY 20% TO 40% CHANCE.
INCREASING HEAT TOWARD THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
AS OF LATE TONIGHT, LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WERE
SEEING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE PRESENT SHORT-WAVE
MOVING OUT. WHERE THINGS GET A LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOWEVER, IS WITH
THE CURRENTLY STALLED COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH. INITIALLY THIS COLD
FRONT WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT
LATEST CAMS ARE NOW STRUGGLING TO GET A TIMING ON ITS DECENT WITH
SOME MODEL NOT SEEING ARRIVE TILL LATE MONDAY MORNING. AS IT
STANDS THE LATEST NBM IS IN MORE FAVOR OF THIS LATER ARRIVAL, BUT
GIVEN OUR TYPICAL PENSION FOR EARLY FRONT ARRIVALS, CONFIDENCE IS
NOT TO SET ON SUCH A THOUGHT. REGARDLESS, THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
FRONT IS EXPECT TO BRING MORE CHANCES AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE PANHANDLES. WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE
CHANCES, THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT
ROLE. IF WE GET THE EARLIER ARRIVAL THEN CAPE VALUES WILL NOT HAVE
ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER DURING DAY TIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
OF COURSE THIS WOULD ALSO SHORTEN THE DURATION OF STORMS AS THE
COLD STABLE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD WIN OUT EASILY AND
KILL ACTIVITY. NOW IF WE GET THE LATER ARRIVAL THAT THE NAMNEST
AND RAP ARE CALLING FOR, THEN THERE COULD BE ROUGHLY 1500 TO 2000
J/KG OR MLCAPE TO WORK WITH ALONG WITH JUST BULK WIND SHEAR TO GET
A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR BETTER PWAT
VALUES TO PUSH IN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL.
REGARDLESS, ONCE THE FRONT PASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE.
MOVING INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE A MORE STAGNATE PATTERN PUSH IN WITH
MODEL AGREEMENT SEE A NEW UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
IN. HOWEVER, ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH MODELS EXPECTING A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-LEVELS. OF COURSE THE SEVERITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO RELY
ON THE ACTIVITY SEEN FOR MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO
OVERWORK FROM THE PRIOR DAY. STILL PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5
INCHES SO DECENT RAINFALL CAN NOT BE RULED OUR EVEN IF THE OUTCOME
IS MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. EITHER WAY, TEMPERATURE WILL
LOOK TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS SITTING IN THE MID TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A MORE STAGNATE PATTERN LOOKS TO FORM AS WE INCH CLOSER TO THE
HOLIDAY WITH MODELS SEEING THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH HOLD OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, THIS STAGNATE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THAT WE CAN’T SEE
PRECIPITATION WITH MANY MODELS SEEING ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHORT-WAVE WILL HELP BRING CHANCES, BUT WITH LITTLE IN WAYS OF
STEERING FLOW, ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHERE HIGH
INSTABILITY LET STORMS BUILD BUT THE LACK OF SHEAR KEPT THEM FROM
SUSTAINING. HOWEVER AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND MOVE INTO
INDEPENDENCE DAY, WE SEE A MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOW AND
BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH MODELS SEEING A SECONDARY
TROUGH FOLLOWING FOR THE WEEKEND. THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE 15 TO 35% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLEAR INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY AND THE WEEKEND THAT
FOLLOWS. OF COURSE THESE CHANCES WILL ALSO COME WITH THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MIXED GIVEN THE NECESSARY
MESOSCALE FACTORS ARE NOT TOO CLEAR AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS THESE
CHANCES WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
STAYING IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S CLEAR INTO THE HOLIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z.
THEREAFTER, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW PROB30S IN TO COVER PRETTY MUCH FROM
18Z-06Z BUT HOPING TO NARROW THOSE WINDOWS DOWN IN BY THE 12/18Z
ISSUANCE, AS WE'RE WATCHING A FRONT AND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL
TRACK. IF IT TRACKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH, IT COULD REALLY LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT IF IT STALLS OUT THEN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
POP UP STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...89
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