740
FXUS64 KAMA 191839
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
139 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES LOOK TO REMAIN
IN THE UPPER-90S TO LOW-100S THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
- THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON AN
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT BASIS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, WITH
CHANCES PICKING UP ACROSS ALL AREAS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
A BIT OF A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL,
FEW CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AS WE EXPECT TO BE VERY WARM TO
HOT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ONLY EXCEPTION THAT MAY MANAGE TO GET A
STORM GOING TODAY WOULD BE NORTHWEST CIMARRON COUNTY AS THAT SEEMS
TO BE THE AREA THAT CAMS ARE SUGGESTING MIGHT STILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE CAP IN PLACE FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURE WISE, PALO DURO CANYON IS ON TRACK FOR
101-103, AND SOME EASTERN COUNTIES MAY BREAK 100 AS WELL. DEWPOINTS
LOOK TO BE FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S, WHICH PRETTY MUCH KEEPS
THE HEAT INDEX RIGHT AT THE MAIN TEMPERATURE.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TOMORROW, BUT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STARTING
TO TAKE A MORE AMPLIFIED APPROACH OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AREA, IT DOES OPEN THE DOOR FOR MOST OF THE MOISTURE THATS
SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST TODAY, TO CREEP INTO OUR AREA. AND IN
GENERAL IT'S EXPECTED TO BE HOTTER TOMORROW, SOME AREAS MAY NEED
HEAT HIGHLIGHTS. WE STILL HAVE PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SO
WILL NOT RULE OUT CONVECTION JUST DO TO DIURNAL HEATING ON ITS
OWN. OVERALL, THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW (LESS THAN
15 PERCENT) ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.
TOMORROW NIGHT THERE MAY, BE A SUBTLE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO HELP KICK OFF A
FEW STORMS IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. NOW THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE,
BUT IT APPEARS THAT AN OVERNIGHT SURGE OF MOISTURE AROUND 600H WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW FULL SATURATION IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES WITH ABOUT 750 TO
1000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED CAPE ALOFT. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME
OVERNIGHT STORMS TOMORROW NIGHT.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES, BUT WE MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
HIGHS, AS EACH DAY IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE FAVORABLE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN STORE, AND WITH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF ANY STORMS, MAXIMUM HEATING POTENTIAL WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO
BEING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. RIGHT NOW PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY
LOW ON MONDAY, AND MAINLY IN THE WEST FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT THEY DO
START TO EXPAND A BIT ON TUESDAY, WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS ALL
AREAS, AND THEN CHANCES PULL BACK A BIT ON FRIDAY.
WEBER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN
THE 12-18KT RANGE, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25KTS THROUGH ABOUT 2Z.
THEREAFTER BECOMING LIGHTER IN THE 10KT RANGE. LLWS POSSIBLE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 40KTS IN THE 10-14Z TIME PERIOD.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89
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