274
FXUS64 KAMA 201050
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
550 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN JUL 20, 2025
- THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MOISTURE CAN LEAD
TO CONCERNS FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE PALO DURO CANYON.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES LOOK TO REMAIN
IN THE UPPER-90S TO LOW-100S THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
- THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON AN
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT BASIS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, WITH
CHANCES PICKING UP ACROSS ALL AREAS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATE ITSELF TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER FLORIDA WITH THE WESTERN
EXTEND OF THE HIGH JUST REACHING INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS US IN A UNIQUE SITUATION WHERE WE
REMAIN STAGNATE ENOUGH AT THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS TO ALLOW US TO
WARM, BUT KEEP ENOUGH OF A FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO KEEP
MOISTURE PRESENT FROM THE GULF. UNFORTUNATELY THIS DOES RESULT IN
HEAT CONCERNS ESPECIALLY FOR TODAY. AS IT STANDS, LATEST GUIDANCE
IS EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FURTHER WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MULTIPLE LOCATIONS LOOKING TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK BY THIS EVENING. WHILE NORMALLY TEMPERATURE JUST MEETING THIS
MARK WOULD NOT BE CONCERN THE AMBIENT MOISTURE STILL PRESENT CAN
MAKE THESE TEMPERATURE FEEL A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN THEY
ACTUALLY ARE. THIS COULD PROVE TO BE A PROBLEM IN OUR HOTTER
LOCATIONS LIKE THE PALO DURO CANYON WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB UP TO 103 DEGREES FOR THE DAY. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL, HAVE CHOSEN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE PALO DURO
CANYON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONE WRENCH IN THESE
CONCERNS FOR HOTTER TEMPERATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER THAT COULD FOLLOW. GIVEN
THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND PRESENT MOISTURE, MULTIPLE CAMS HAVE
SUGGESTED THAT WE COULD EASILY SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE HIT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
AS IT STANDS MOST OF THESE STORMS WOULD BE VERY QUICK POP UP
STORMS, WITH CONCERNS BEING MAINLY GUSTY DOWN BURST WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER WITH HOW SPARSE THESE STORMS MAY BE,
IT HAS BEEN HARD FOR MODELS TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIME AND
PLACEMENT, WHICH HAS LEFT CONFIDENCE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED.
GIVEN THIS, HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER END, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WEST WHERE THE MOUNTAINS COULD PROVIDE MORE AID.
MOVING INTO MONDAY, HAS MOST MODEL SEEING A SLIGHT OSCILLATION IN
THE HIGH THAT DOES LET THE TEMPERATURES COOL BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES, BUT OVERALL KEEPS A SIMILAR SET UP FOR ACTIVITY AS TODAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
PROGRESSING THROUGH NEXT WEEK HAS MODEL AGREEMENT STAYING ON THE
FRINGES OF THE PRESENT UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
EAST. MUCH LIKE IT HAS OVER THIS WEEKEND, THIS POSITIONING WILL
ALLOW US TO STAY WARM ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BUT KEEP THE MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF IN PLACE. AS IT STANDS, LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO
KEEP PWATS VALUES AROUND THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH MARK WHILE TEMPERATURES
PEAK INTO THE 90S. THIS COMBINATION WILL MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PANHANDLES HIT
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. HOWEVER WITH SUCH WEAK STEERING FLOW
PRESENT, MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOT OF QUICK POP-UP STORMS THAT CAN PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY COLLAPSE. REGARDLESS THE PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO SHAKE UP A BIT AS WE START TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE MODELS SEEING A COUPLE OF SHORT-WAVES MOVE THROUGH AND
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES. AS IT STANDS THESE
CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 35% WITH THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
SEEING MOST OF THE FOCUS. AFTER WHICH, MOST MODELS HAVE A NEW
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH FORMING OVER THE TOP OF TEXAS AND FORCING THE
PANHANDLES INTO A NEW ROUND OF WARM AND POSSIBLY DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS REMOTE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCES OF THIS IMPACTING
ANY TERMINAL ARE TOO LOW TO BE REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE
WEAKLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98
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