172
FXUS64 KAMA 201859
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
159 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
-HEAT ADVISORY TODAY IN THE PALO DURO CANYON AREA WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD STILL PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY
TODAY AND FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AHEAD, AS TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
MID 90S TO LOW 100S.
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY TODAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE EACH DAY
AND WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY. AS A RESULT HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. WE'RE ALREADY SEEING THIS WITH WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 90S, AND PALO DURO CANYON HAS ALREADY REACHED 102.
HIGHS IN THE EAST WILL BE IN THE LOW 100S WITH UPPER 90S IN MOST
OTHER AREAS. EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY, WHICH
COULD BE IN THE LOW 100S AS WELL. SOME LIGHT CUMULUS HAS ALREADY
STARTED, AND WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW CHANCES ARE ABOUT 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE PANHANDLES. IT WILL BE CLOSE AS 18Z SOUNDING HAS ABOUT 80
ML CIN WITH STILL CONTINUED HEATING, WE MAY BE ABLE TO CONVECT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. MAIN THING WITH STORMS WILL
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY
PULSE IN NATURE, WHERE THE DEVELOP THEN COLLAPSE ON EACH OTHER.
TOMORROW THE HIGH WILL AMPLIFY A BIT MORE AND DRAW MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AND THAT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND
MORE CLOUD COVER. WHILE WE DO EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW, IT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF FROM TODAY. CURRENTLY NO HEAT
HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED TOMORROW, BUT PALO DURO CANYON AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE ZONES SHOULD BE SAFE AS IT WILL BE THE 3RD DAY OF 100+
DEGREE HEAT, AND THOSE WHO ARE REQUIRED TO BE OUTDOORS SHOULD FOLLOW
PROPER HEAT SAFETY RECOMMENDATIONS TO PROTECT THEMSELVES FROM HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES. THERE IS SOME INCREASED MOISTURE TOMORROW TO
SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS
JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE FOR DAY 2, BUT WOULD SATISFY A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR TOMORROW. THE SOUTHWEST HAS A BETTER CHANCE OVERALL, SO
WE DO HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS IN DEAF SMITH COUNTY. MORE LIKELY IF
TODAY ENDS UP HAVING MORE THAN JUST AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO, THEN
TOMORROW WOULD BE FAVORED TO BE MORE EXPANSIVE IN NATURE, AND POPS
WOULD BE ADJUSTED HIGHER.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES. WE WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY AS THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HELP KEEP THE
HIGHS A BIT LOWER. BUT THE OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE PANHANDLES NEXT
WEEKEND, AND THAT COULD SUPPORT SOME VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
PANHANDLE WIDE. STILL DESPITE THE HIGH PRESSURE, WILL NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
MOISTURE WE'VE HAD HERE IN THE PANHANDLES.
WEBER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN
THE 10-15KT RANGE. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT WILL NOT HAVE
ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF STORMS MANAGE TO FORM AND
THREATEN TERMINALS, THEY WILL BE DEALT WITH VIA AMENDMENTS.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89
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