247
FXUS64 KAMA 211809 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
109 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATE ITSELF TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER FLORIDA WITH THE WESTERN
EXTEND OF THE HIGH JUST REACHING INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS US IN A UNIQUE SITUATION WHERE WE
REMAIN STAGNATE ENOUGH AT THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS TO ALLOW US TO
WARM, BUT KEEP ENOUGH OF A FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO KEEP
MOISTURE PRESENT FROM THE GULF. UNFORTUNATELY THIS DOES RESULT IN
HEAT CONCERNS ESPECIALLY FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. AS IT STANDS,
LATEST GUIDANCE IS EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FURTHER WARM BOTH
AFTERNOONS WITH MULTIPLE LOCATIONS LOOKING TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK BY THE EVENING. WHILE NORMALLY TEMPERATURE JUST
MEETING THIS MARK WOULD NOT BE CONCERN THE AMBIENT MOISTURE STILL
PRESENT CAN MAKE THESE TEMPERATURE FEEL A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN
THEY ACTUALLY ARE.
WHAT MAY BE OUR SAVING GRACE IN THE WEST HOWEVER; IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY THE LATEST CAMS ARE EXPECTING THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO
RETREAT FURTHER EAST, WHICH WILL ALL FOR SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL AID IN GIVING A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT THAT COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, MOST
OF THE CAMS ARE NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH FROM THESE STORMS WITH MOST
OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES DEALING WITH CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG
AND LITTLE TO NOW WIND SHEAR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS MOST
OF THESE STORMS WOULD BE VERY QUICK POP UP STORMS, WITH CONCERNS
BEING MAINLY GUSTY DOWN BURST WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
PROGRESSING THROUGH NEXT WEEK HAS MODEL AGREEMENT STAYING ON THE
FRINGES OF THE PRESENT UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
EAST. MUCH LIKE IT HAS OVER THIS WEEKEND, THIS POSITIONING WILL
ALLOW US TO STAY WARM ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BUT KEEP THE MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF IN PLACE. AS IT STANDS, LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO
KEEP PWATS VALUES AROUND THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH MARK WHILE TEMPERATURES
PEAK INTO THE 90S. THIS COMBINATION WILL THEN GET SOME AID FROM
SOME INCOMING SHORT-WAVES STARING WEDNESDAY THAT INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO AROUND 20 TO 30%
FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH SUCH WEAK STEERING FLOW PRESENT,
MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOT OF QUICK POP-UP STORMS THAT CAN PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY COLLAPSE. REGARDLESS, THESE CHANCES DO
LOOK TO DIMINISH AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH LATEST MODEL
AGREEMENT STARTING TO FAVOR AN NEW UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING IN OVER THE PANHANDLES. ONCE THIS HIGH IS SET IN
PLACE THEN LOOK FOR PRESENT MOISTURE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH, WHICH MAY
LEAVE US WITH A HOT AND DRY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ERUPT OVER THE AIRSPACE BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH THE FAVORED AREA FOR IMPACTS SOUTH AND EAST OF KAMA BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z. A DIRECT HIT FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
VSBYS IN HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BY EARLY EVENING WHILE A
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR KDHT TO KGUY.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MID
LEVEL CIGS THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE WITH THICKER CIRRUS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98
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