031
FXUS64 KAMA 221741
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1241 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
- THERE IS A DAILY 10-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM.
- IMPACTFUL HEAT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
CHANCES AT TRIPLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
15Z RADAR AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOW THE LAST OF MORNING CONVECTION
FINALLY DISSIPATING, ALLOWING FOR A LULL IN THE ACTION UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. LOCALIZED WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH IS HELPING TO PULL WAVES OF ENERGY/PVA ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, WHICH HAS PROVEN TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE DAILY ROUNDS OF
STORMS. DESPITE MODELS FORECASTING DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SFC AS
WE'VE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS, STRONG 700MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND PWATS
OF 1-1.5" CHARACTERIZE THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINING
IN PLACE ATOP THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIES TO OUR WEST SPANNING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NM, BUT ANY UPPER LIFT AND SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
REACH THE TX-NM STATE LINE WILL HAVE ~30% CHANCES TO INITIATE
SCATTERED STORMS FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. FURTHER EAST, SFC HEATING AND LOCALIZED SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE ABOUT 10-20% CHANCES TO INITIATE MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
TODAY'S ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE ABOUT 1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPE FOR STORMS
TO WORK WITH, BUT NOT AS MUCH DCAPE AS YESTERDAY (1000-1500 J/KG
RATHER THAN 1500-200 J/KG). THAT'S JUST A FANCY WAY OF SAYING STORMS
COULD DEFINITELY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE TODAY, BUT ARE LESS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS. AFTER A HANDFUL OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS
YESTERDAY, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V SOUNDING
SIGNATURES LEAD US TO BELIEVE THAT A FEW SEVERE GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT AGAIN. ONCE SFC MOISTURE RECOVERS, EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION WILL BE EASIER TO COME BY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WHERE SLOW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW INDUCED STORMS COULD
KEEP DEVELOPING.
ON WEDNESDAY, WE SHOULD GET A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM THE UPPER
LEVELS IN THE FORM OF A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD, LENDING HIGHER POPS OF 30-50% ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES WHERE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. WEAK SHEAR,
MODEST INSTABILITY, AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE SAME STORM
THREATS AS WE'VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS (STRONG-SEVERE WINDS
& HEAVY RAIN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER IN THE 90S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
ACCORDING TO RECENT MODEL DATA, THURSDAY IS TRENDING TO BE AN
INCREASINGLY INTERESTING WEATHER DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT,
SW FLOW IS PROGGED TO DELIVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD,
WHILE A MODIFIED WEAK FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT
OF THIS NEW TREND IS THAT IT MAY HELP ADVECT "CORN SWEAT" MOISTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST-EASTERN PANHANDLES BY THU AFTERNOON EVENING. THIS
WOULD MEAN A PUSH OF MUCH HIGHER DEW PTS IN THE 70S ENCROACHING PARTS
OF THE REGION, PROVIDING PLENTY OF "JUICE" AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
WIND SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF. THE NAM AND RRFS
HAVE REALLY LATCHED ONTO THIS UPTICK IN PARAMETERS, BRINGING MORE
ORGANIZED AND WIDER COVERAGE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THIS WERE TO UNFOLD, STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WOULD BE ACHIEVABLE, ALONG WITH A FLOODING THREAT FROM
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
MOVING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST EXPANDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT MAY NOT BE AS STOUT AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. FOR THIS REASON, TEMPERATURES WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY CLIMB FRI-SAT, AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECLINE, ALTHOUGH
NOT DISAPPEARING ENTIRELY. AS LONG AS WE REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE, ROGUE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ANY GIVEN DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES EACH DAY. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD BE CLASSIFIED AS YOUR TYPICAL JULY HEAT, BUT WITH SFC
MOISTURE BEING MAINTAINED THE WAY IT HAS, WE CAN ACTUALLY EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS (NAMELY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND PDC) TO HAVE
HIGHER HEAT INDICES FOR MORE IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS.
HARREL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY ENCROACH
UPON THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. BETWEEN 00-06Z, KDHT WILL
HAVE ITS BEST CHANCE TO SEE STORMS IN THE AREA, SO HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS WITH THIS PACKAGE. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE
00Z IF EARLIER STORMS POP UP NEAR THE TERMINALS OR OVERALL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-20KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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