904
FXUS64 KAMA 230534
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1234 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
- THERE IS A DAILY 10-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM.
- THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TREND TO SEE HIGH MOISTURE PRESENT THAT
COULD LEAD TO ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
- IMPACTFUL HEAT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
CHANCES AT TRIPLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
AS OF LATE TONIGHT, LATEST CAMS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEAL WITH THE
PRESENT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. IT IS LIKELY THAT
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS PAST THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME
WITH STORMS HAVING ALREADY PROVEN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 70 MPH
WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS THEY QUICKLY COLLAPSE IN ON
THEMSELVES. HOWEVER, ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WANE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SLIGHTLY STABLER AIR MOVES IN
AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED SHORT-WAVE.
MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY, HAS MOST OF THE CAMS SEE A MUCH STRONGER
SHORT-WAVE PROGRESS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WAVE WILL SERVE AS
THE POTENTIAL CATALYSIS TO STARTING YET ANOTHER ROUND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE
SHORT-WAVES IS GOING TO MATTER AS MOST MODELS DO SEE OUR CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR DROP OFF UNDER THE EXPECTED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS WE
MOVE INTO EVENING HOURS. THIS DROP OFF HAS CAUSED MANY OF THE CAMS
TO BE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT CHANCES TONIGHT GIVEN THEY EXPECT
THE SHORT-WAVE TO MOVE IN CLOSER TO OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER
SHOULD THE WAVE ARRIVE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED, THEN CHANCES WITH
WILL LIKELY IMPROVE WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE PANHANDLES
STILL SEEING CAPE VALUES REACHING THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND ENOUGH
WIND SHEAR TO ALLOW A CELL SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO CREATE
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. REGARDLESS, A SECONDARY
SHORT-WAVE DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY THAT
CAMS HAVE BEEN FAVORING MORE THANKS TO RESURGENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE CAPE VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY ABYSMAL DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE THURSDAY WAVE, PWAT
VALUES COULD EASILY REACH PASS THE 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCH MARK. THIS
COULD LEAD TO ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOP PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT CAN CREATE FLASH FLOODING. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FAVORING THE WESTERN PANHANDLES INITIALLY, BUT COULD
SPREAD MUCH FURTHER EASTWARD DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WAVE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
THE EXIT OF THE STRONGER SHORT-WAVES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DOES
BEGIN TO SEE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVELS AROUND THE PANHANDLES
WITH MOST MODELS SEEING THE PRESENT HIGH BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA.
INITIALLY, MODELS LOOK SEE THE A NEW HIGH BUILD OVER THE
PANHANDLES AND THEN PROCEED TO COMPLETELY WIN OUT AND CUT OFF OUR
MOISTURE TRACK FROM THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WOULD THEN SEE US
FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN TO HEAT UP EVEN FURTHER.
HOWEVER, NOW THAT MODELS ARE SEEING THIS MORE AS A RE-INVIGORATION
OF THE PRESENT HIGH THIS MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE THE CASE, AT
LEAST FOR THE DRIER AIR. IF PRESENT MODELS STAND THEN IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE TO SEE DECENT MOISTURE PRESENT AS WE BEING TO HEAT UP FOR
THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FEELING
MUCH HOTTER THAN WHAT ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS SAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
HEAT RELATED CONCERN MUCH EASIER OVER EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MEANWHILE, MOST MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES HEAT UP
WITH THE PANHANDLES LOOKING TO FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AND STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS REMAINS DURING THE PASSAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR OR WORSE.
THERE IS STILL A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THAT
HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTING KGUY. THEN THE NEXT ROUND OF
ACTIVITY THAT MAY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WILL START IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY
STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS THE AMBIENT WINDS WILL SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page