014
FXUS64 KAMA 232326
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS HAVE OVER PERFORMED IN TERMS OF WIND GUSTS
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT HAS BEEN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 TO 70 MPH HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AND THAT POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION.
MUSCHA
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- THURSDAY CONTINUES TRENDING TOWARDS MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. IF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
DEVELOP, POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
- IMPACTFUL HEAT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
CHANCES AT TRIPLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
IF IT SEEMS LIKE WE'RE BEATING A DEAD HORSE WITH THE FORECAST
LATELY, IT'S BECAUSE WE ARE. TODAY & TOMORROW WILL BRING CONTINUED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCATTERED T-STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUST AND
TORRENTIAL RAIN POTENTIAL, PEAKING TOMORROW EVENING-OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS STAY BREEZY AGAIN TODAY AT 15-25 MPH, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
AS OF 12PM, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET TO KICK OFF CONVECTION TODAY
WAS ANALYZED JUST TO OUR WEST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM. AS IT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FLARE UP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, EVENTUALLY SENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OUR
WAY TO GENERATE MORE CONVECTION, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS EVENINGS. FOR
THE REST OF THE CWA, DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCALIZED SFC CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE, WEAK SHEAR, MODEST
INSTABILITY, AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE SAME STORM THREATS
AS WE'VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS (STRONG-SEVERE WINDS & HEAVY
RAIN). THANKFULLY, ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS FOR DOWNBURSTS ARE EVEN
LESS FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF
WE HAVE YET ANOTHER INSTANCE OR TWO OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
TOMORROW CONTINUES LOOKING LIKE A HIGHER COVERAGE DAY OF STORMS, AND
POTENTIALLY HIGHER INTENSITY, IF A FEW FACTORS PLAY OUT AS SOME
MODELS SUGGEST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION, WHILE A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE
PANHANDLES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT COULD PULL DOWN SOME
MIDWEST ENHANCED SFC MOISTURE (DEW PTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S),
HELPING PWATS APPROACH 2.0" IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. EVEN IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ISN'T
THIS RICH, PWATS >1.5" AND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL PROVIDE
MORE THAN ENOUGH FUEL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE. CAMS DEPICT
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT WHEREVER
IT STALLS, WITH A MESSY LINE/COMPLEX OF STORMS TAKING SHAPE WHILE
PUSHING EAST OUT OF NM. IF THIS PANS OUT, WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF 1-2"/HR, AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. EVEN A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MCS TOMORROW EVENING WOULD HAVE ENOUGH "OOMPH" TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" ACCORDING TO SOME CAMS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND NAM NEST. HI-RES ENSEMBLE DATA PAINTS MEDIUM CHANCES
(40-70%) FOR >1" OF RAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 60, WITH LOW
CHANCES (10-30%) FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS >2" THU-THU NIGHT. WE WILL
BE MONITORING THE FLOODING THREAT CLOSELY IF THESE TRENDS PERSIST.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
MOVING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST EXPANDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, CAUSING PRECIP CHANCES TO
DECLINE (<15%) WHILE TEMPERATURES MAINTAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
(DAILY HIGHS IN THE 90S). AS LONG AS WE REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE THOUGH, AMPLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE TO NOT RULE OUT A
FEW ROGUE STORMS, ESPECIALLY NEXT TUE WHEN SOME GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
THE HIGH BECOMING SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO OUR EAST. SATURDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH, WITH MANY
LOCATIONS OFF THE CAPROCK REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES, AS WELL
AS PALO DURO CANYON. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE CLASSIFIED AS YOUR
TYPICAL JULY HEAT, BUT WITH SFC MOISTURE BEING MAINTAINED THE WAY IT
HAS, WE CAN ACTUALLY EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS (NAMELY THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES AND PDC) TO HAVE HIGHER HEAT INDICES FOR MORE IMPACTFUL
CONDITIONS. HAVING LIGHTER THAN AVERAGE WINDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WON'T HELP EITHER, FURTHER SUPPORTING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEELING
NEAR OR ABOVE THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE.
HARREL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING AT ANY
OF THE TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IF STORMS APPROACH
ANY OF THE SITES. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SHOULD ROTATE
CLOCKWISE UNTIL THEY ARE OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10 KTS. WINDS
WILL BE SPORADIC IF ANY STORMS APPROACH THE SITES. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PROB30
MENTIONS.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...05
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