046
FXUS64 KAMA 240541
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1241 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW LONG TERM, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS HAVE OVER PERFORMED IN TERMS OF WIND GUSTS
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT HAS BEEN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 TO 70 MPH HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AND THAT POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION.
MUSCHA
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- THURSDAY CONTINUES TRENDING TOWARDS MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. IF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
DEVELOP, POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
- IMPACTFUL HEAT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
CHANCES AT TRIPLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
IF IT SEEMS LIKE WE'RE BEATING A DEAD HORSE WITH THE FORECAST
LATELY, IT'S BECAUSE WE ARE. TODAY & TOMORROW WILL BRING CONTINUED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCATTERED T-STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUST AND
TORRENTIAL RAIN POTENTIAL, PEAKING TOMORROW EVENING-OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS STAY BREEZY AGAIN TODAY AT 15-25 MPH, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
AS OF 12PM, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET TO KICK OFF CONVECTION TODAY
WAS ANALYZED JUST TO OUR WEST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM. AS IT
LIFTS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FLARE UP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, EVENTUALLY SENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OUR
WAY TO GENERATE MORE CONVECTION, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS EVENINGS. FOR
THE REST OF THE CWA, DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCALIZED SFC CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE, WEAK SHEAR, MODEST
INSTABILITY, AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE SAME STORM THREATS
AS WE'VE BEEN SEEING IN RECENT DAYS (STRONG-SEVERE WINDS & HEAVY
RAIN). THANKFULLY, ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS FOR DOWNBURSTS ARE EVEN
LESS FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF
WE HAVE YET ANOTHER INSTANCE OR TWO OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
TOMORROW CONTINUES LOOKING LIKE A HIGHER COVERAGE DAY OF STORMS, AND
POTENTIALLY HIGHER INTENSITY, IF A FEW FACTORS PLAY OUT AS SOME
MODELS SUGGEST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION, WHILE A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE
PANHANDLES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT COULD PULL DOWN SOME
MIDWEST ENHANCED SFC MOISTURE (DEW PTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S),
HELPING PWATS APPROACH 2.0" IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES AND AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. EVEN IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ISN'T
THIS RICH, PWATS >1.5" AND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL PROVIDE
MORE THAN ENOUGH FUEL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE. CAMS DEPICT
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT WHEREVER
IT STALLS, WITH A MESSY LINE/COMPLEX OF STORMS TAKING SHAPE WHILE
PUSHING EAST OUT OF NM. IF THIS PANS OUT, WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF 1-2"/HR, AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. EVEN A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MCS TOMORROW EVENING WOULD HAVE ENOUGH "OOMPH" TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" ACCORDING TO SOME CAMS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND NAM NEST. HI-RES ENSEMBLE DATA PAINTS MEDIUM CHANCES
(40-70%) FOR >1" OF RAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 60, WITH LOW
CHANCES (10-30%) FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS >2" THU-THU NIGHT. WE WILL
BE MONITORING THE FLOODING THREAT CLOSELY IF THESE TRENDS PERSIST.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE HIGH PRESSURE IS THE DOMINANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL
INFLUENCE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS THIS
WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FALL
OFF. BASED OFF OF FORECAST THETA-E VALUES IN THE AREA, WE SHOULD
STILL HOLD ONTO ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE PROFILES. THIS MEANS THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE DRAMATICALLY IN THE CWA AND AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DAYS WHERE POPS ARE 10% OR LESS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE IN THE 90'S FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER 90'S AND A FEW 100'S THIS WEEKEND, THEN LOW TO
MID 90'S NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NOT COMPLETELY ABSENT
NEXT WEEK EITHER. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SHOW BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE ARE
STILL DISPARITIES REGARDING TIMING. THE WESTER PANHANDLES ARE STILL
WHERE THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NEXT WEEK.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BRING RAIN TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. NO IMPACTS TO CEILING OR VISIBILITY
ARE ANTICIPATED AS ALONG AS THE CONVECTION REMAINS AS SHOWER-LIKE.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTIONS OF THUNDER AT
ANY SITE; BUT IF THESE SHOWERS WERE TO GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS,
AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE AND IMPACTS TO CIG AND VIS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LATER TODAY ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
FOR THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO
BE WIDESPREAD, SO PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED TO ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUBSIDES AT THE END OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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