907
FXUS64 KAMA 240640
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
140 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A LOW CHANCE TO TRANSPIRE
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS EXPECTED FROM THIS
ACTIVITY.
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DECREASE, BUT THEY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
TONIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS PRETTY TAME,
AS LIGHTNING IS THE ONLY NOTABLE ONGOING HAZARD. THE FLOOD AND
SEVERE RISK ARE VERY LOW FOR THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY THE 3 TO 4
AM HOUR.
TODAY, SEASONAL HEAT RETURNS TO THE CWA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 90'S. THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 90'S AND
100'S. LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OUR
NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN. GREATER THAN
1,500 J/KG SBCAPE AND DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1,000 TO 1,500 J/KG
WILL CREATE A NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS
FROM HIGH BASED STORMS. 60'S DEWPOINTS AND SEASONABLY HIGH PWAT
VALUES ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL LEND TO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND ALLOW THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND MAY NOT END UNTIL 4
AM FRIDAY OR LATER, DEPENDING ON STORM MOTION. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING VERY HEAVY RAIN.
THESE CONCERNS WILL LAST AS ALONG AS THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN THE
AREA.
TOMORROW, WE POTENTIALLY RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE CWA TO REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY
IS STILL LOW, AS THE CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STORM OR TWO
COULD FORM IN THE NORTHWEST. THE MOST AGRESSIVE MODEL SEEMS TO BE
THE 00Z HIRESW ARW, WHICH SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD STAY SIMILAR TO THE VALUES WE ARE
FORECASTING FOR TODAY.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE HIGH PRESSURE IS THE DOMINANT
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL
INFLUENCE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS THIS
WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FALL
OFF. BASED OFF OF FORECAST THETA-E VALUES IN THE AREA, WE SHOULD
STILL HOLD ONTO ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE PROFILES. THIS MEANS THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE DRAMATICALLY IN THE CWA AND AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DAYS WHERE POPS ARE 10% OR LESS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE IN THE 90'S FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER 90'S AND A FEW 100'S THIS WEEKEND, THEN LOW TO
MID 90'S NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NOT COMPLETELY ABSENT
NEXT WEEK EITHER. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SHOW BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE ARE
STILL DISPARITIES REGARDING TIMING. THE WESTER PANHANDLES ARE STILL
WHERE THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NEXT WEEK.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BRING RAIN TO ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. NO IMPACTS TO CEILING OR VISIBILITY
ARE ANTICIPATED AS ALONG AS THE CONVECTION REMAINS AS SHOWER-LIKE.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTIONS OF THUNDER AT
ANY SITE; BUT IF THESE SHOWERS WERE TO GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS,
AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE AND IMPACTS TO CIG AND VIS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LATER TODAY ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
FOR THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO
BE WIDESPREAD, SO PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED TO ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUBSIDES AT THE END OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page