530
FXUS64 KAMA 071422
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
922 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLES
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE SOUTHWEST HAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS NOT BEEN WELL FORECAST BY ANY MODEL
GUIDANCE SO FAR TODAY, SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS
AREA IN THE ONGOING FORECAST. IF THE CLOUD COVER LINGERS FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHICH IS A
POSSIBILITY, THIS COULD VERY MUCH LIMIT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SOME AREAS TODAY. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR NOW, BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND ADDITIONAL
FORECAST UPDATES MAY BE POSSIBLE SHOULD CLOUD COVER LINGER LONGER
THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
MUSCHA
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
- HOT TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES ARE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
WHETHER YOU LOVE IT OR LOATHE IT, AMARILLO FINALLY REACHED 100
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
INDICATIONS SAY WE'RE SET TO REPEAT THE FEAT AGAIN BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW, THANKS TO THE CURRENTLY 600DAM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED TO OUR WEST OVER NEW MEXICO. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 100-
105 RANGE PANHANDLES WIDE BOTH DAYS, UNLESS CLOUD COVER IS ABLE TO
PREVENT STRONGER HEATING IN A FEW PLACES. PALO DURO CANYON HAS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE TO REACH 105 YET AGAIN, SO A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CANYON TODAY.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SEVERAL CAMS AS WELL AS COARSER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT THE NOTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPROACHING AND POTENTIALLY ENTERING THE NW PANHANDLES IN THE
EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS MARGINAL
AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ADVECTED TO THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGING UPON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNTS OF DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR MUCH IF
ANY RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND, MEANING THAT ANY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE ABOUT A TENTH OR LESS BOTH EVENINGS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS AS WELL. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT THOUGH, AS THE HRRR AND GFS SEEM TO THINK THAT
SHOWERS COULD SURVIVE FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
PANHANDLES IF ENERGY FROM THE DISTURBANCE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. HAVE
THEREFORE EXPANDED 10-15% POPS FURTHER EAST THAN NBM FORECAST DATA
HAD ORIGINALLY PLACED THEM.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM
THE REGION AS A TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. AS A
RESULT, BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE
PANHANDLES LIKE WE'VE BEEN SEEING MOST OF THE SUMMER, ALLOWING DAILY
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO COME BACK WITH IT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
KEEP FAVORING SUNDAY EVENING FOR OUR HIGHEST PRECIP POTENTIAL, WHEN
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS SET TO BREAK OFF THE MAIN TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH, DIVING OVER THE PANHANDLES AND PROVIDING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT (20-40% POPS). ANOTHER
BENEFIT OF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS THE RETURN OF TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 80S AND 90S, PROVIDING HIGH
PROBABILITIES (70-100%) FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO STAY BELOW 100
DEGREES SUN-WED.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 KTS
WITH FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ002>005-007>015-017>020-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...29
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