109
FXUS64 KAMA 072333
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
- HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES DUE TO WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE STARTING THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP H500 ANALYSIS, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. H850 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP TO 30 CELSIUS BASED ON
THE 18Z RAOB FROM KAMA AND THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WARM UP A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HIGHS OF 100 DEGREES OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING
HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER TO THE WEST, THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. EVEN THOUGH CAMS HAVE MOSTLY BACKED
OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, STILL AM KEEPING
AT LEAST 10-15 PERCENT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR
THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY
THAN SHOWERS OR STORMS AND WITH DCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2000 TO
2200 J/KG, ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
VERY MINIMAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER HOT DAY
FOR THE PANHANDLES FEATURING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PANHANDLES DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES.
THIS AREA IS INDICATED WELL IN THE HEAT RISK CATEGORY WITH
WIDESPREAD MAJOR IMPACTS FOR THE PANHANDLES FOR TOMORROW. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE MAY KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRY AT
THE SURFACE TOMORROW SO MUCH OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE VIRGA,
BUT SOME RAIN STILL MAY REACH THE GROUND. STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR STORMS THAT FORM OR MOVE OVER THE CWA.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE THE
KEY POINTS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND AS TROUGHING
DIGS SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL AID IN STARTING THE
COOL DOWN FOR THE PANHANDLES. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT AGREE
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THAT
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE FRONT COULD BE A FOCAL
POINT FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND. WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH OF THE DAYS AS WELL. DETAILS
REGARDING ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT BUT
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. HIGH PRESSURE MAY START TO MOVE BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK UP ABOVE AVERAGE TO END NEXT WORK WEEK.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL
PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SLOWLY MOVING
EAST. HOWEVER, THESE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES
AND ARE CURRENTLY UNLIKELY TO IMPACT KGUY. MEANWHILE, BOTH KAMA
AND KDHT ARE BOTH VFR AND EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ALBEIT WITH SOME SURFACE WIND GUST PRESENT. THE ONLY
THING THAT MAY NEED TO BE WATCH IS SOME SLIGHT HAZE FROM ONGOING
PRESCRIBED BURNS OCCURRING ONE COUNTY OVER TO THE EAST OF KAMA.
HOWEVER, WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SMOKE OUT OF THE AREA FOR
THE MOST PART.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>015-017>020-
317.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ003>005-
008>010-013>015-018>020-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ002-003.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...11
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