778
FXUS64 KAMA 080541
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1241 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES DUE TO WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE STARTING THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
WE'VE GOT ONE MORE SHOE-IN DAY OF WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PANHANDLES TODAY, BEFORE SEEING SOME REPRIEVE
FROM THE SHORT LIVED HEAT WAVE TO END THE WEEK. THE STOUT DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRONGHOLD OVER OUR
REGION FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY, RESULTING IN FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 100-107. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES FROM 1-8 PM. WE'LL ALSO BE WATCHING
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT AS
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO SPUR UP CONVECTION OVER NM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. A MODEST PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR AREA, BUT DRY LOW-LEVELS
WILL MAKE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL HARD TO COME BY (~15-20% CHANCE FOR
0.01" OF RAIN). STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPORADIC STRONG WIND
GUSTS >50 MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
ON SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCING OUT OF KANSAS,
EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NECK OF THE PLAINS AND PROVIDING A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE A FEW SPOTS OF OUR SE ZONES
STILL HAVE MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (40-70%) TO REACH OR EXCEED 100 ON
SATURDAY, MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S. THIS WILL BE DUE
IN PART TO THE DECAYING RIDGE TO OUR WEST, ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED MOISTURE RETURN AND ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TO ADVANCE
OVER THE REGION. HIGHER SFC DEW PTS NORTH OF THE FRONT FAVOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES FOR HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS (20-40% POPS). THIS COULD INCLUDE A COUPLE OF
STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, THANKS TO 20-30KT BULK SHEAR
AND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT MEANINGFUL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NOT THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY.
LATEST TRENDS FROM MODEL DATA SHOW A LARGE SCALE TROUGH TRACKING
AND SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, BRINGING
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE LIFT WITH IT BY SUN EVENING. HIGHER DEW PTS
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH 700MB
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP PWATS IMPROVE TO 1.00-1.50" AREA WIDE.
OVERALL, CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE IMPROVING SUNDAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (30-60% POPS). TEMPERATURE WISE, 90S WILL BE THE
NORM WITH A STRAY INSTANCE OR TWO OF TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE SE, AND
MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 80S IN THE NW.
BY NEXT WORK WEEK, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE A PIECE OF THE TROUGH
BREAKING OFF FROM THE PARENT WAVE, MAINTAINING A PATTERN THAT WOULD
BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY. IF
THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS TO OUR NORTH QUICKER THAN LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS, THEN PERHAPS HIGH PRESSURE COULD CREEP BACK IN OVER THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK. BUT FOR NOW, WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S WITH 15-30% PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.
HARREL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
TAFS ARE VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING.
MARGINAL LLWS IS FORECAST AT KDHT AND KGUY AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO
A 50-60KT LLJ OVERHEAD WITH RELATIVELY LIGHTER SFC WINDS. IN
GENERAL, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10-20KTS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. IF CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASES IN THE COMING HOURS, MENTIONS
MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. BUT FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ003>005-008>010-013>015-018>020-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ002-003.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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