304
FXUS64 KAMA 081738
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY STARTING AS EARLY AS THE
MID- AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CAN'T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT A DAMAGING WIND GUST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
BUT THE PRIMARY HAZARD MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL DUE TO HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
THERE WILL BE AROUND A 15-25% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND BEHIND A SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES AS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW ALOFT MOVE IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE VICINITY SHOW A
TALL, INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE BELOW RELATIVELY MOIST MID-
LEVELS RESULTING IN DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1900 J/KG TO 2200 J/KG.
THEREFORE, ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE
VIRGA THAT PRODUCES GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH WITH HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PENNIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN US, AND WITH IT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SOME RESULTING IN HIGHS "COOLING" INTO
THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES. A WEAK FRONT IS FAVORED INTO
MOVE INTO A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-
V SIGNATURES WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST TO SOME DEGREE INTO THE
EVENING AND PERHAPS OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE ABOUT THAT IS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE SET UP ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY MORNING. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL
SWING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A WIND GUST UP TO 60 MPH,
BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN MORE FAVORABLE FORCING ARRIVES.
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN NEW MEXICO MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO
AN MCS IN THE PANHANDLES. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND PWATS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT, RESULTING IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR HEAVY TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY, THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE FASTER STORM MOTIONS. WITH THAT SAID, RAIN
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR, PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES,
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS REGARDING
THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG AND NORTH OF IT. AS IT STANDS NOW, THE NORTHERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES ARE FAVORED TO BE IMPACTED BUT HAVE SEEN IT SEVERAL TIMES
BEFORE WHERE THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP FURTHER SOUTH THAN GUIDANCE HAD
IT, RESULTING IN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN JUMPING SOUTH ON THE DAY
OF.
DEPENDING HOW LONG CLOUDS LINGER INTO MONDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY
REMAIN IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. NOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FAVORED
FOR MONDAY. THIS, ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR, WE COULD SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AGAIN ON MONDAY. IF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TOO STABLE, STORMS WOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE IN.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES BEYOND MONDAY AS GUIDANCE
DIVERGES REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
DEPARTS, WITH SOME GUIDANCE HAVING IT LINGER IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE POTENT
DOWNDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM, WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG AND
ERRATIC WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AFTERWARD, A FRONT WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE WINDS TO NORTHERLY.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ003>005-007>015-
018>020.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ002-003.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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