602  
FXUS64 KAMA 091120  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
620 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025  
 
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COMBINED  
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE  
THE PRIMARY HAZARD.  
 
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY STARTING AS EARLY AS THE  
MID-AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CAN'T  
ENTIRELY RULE OUT A DAMAGING WIND GUST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS,  
BUT THE PRIMARY HAZARD MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING  
POTENTIAL DUE TO HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025  
 
A WELCOMED PATTERN CHANGE KICKS OFF THIS WEEKEND, THANKS TO AN UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH SET TO GIVE OUR PESKY HIGH PRESSURE THE BOOT. MODELS  
SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCING OUT OF KANSAS, EVENTUALLY REACHING  
AND STALLING OVER OUR NECK OF THE PLAINS TODAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE  
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH  
HIGHS FAVORED IN THE 90S RATHER THAN THE TRIPLE DIGITS WE'VE BEEN  
SEEING. HOWEVER, A FEW SPOTS OF OUR SOUTH AND EASTERN ZONES HAVE A  
GOOD SHOT TO REACH OR EXCEED 100 YET AGAIN. HIGHER SFC DEW PTS WILL  
BE ADVECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, FAVORING AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN  
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FOR HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN  
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS (20-40% POPS). PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL  
LIKELY SHIFT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS THIS  
AFTERNOON, WHICH VERY WELL COULD END UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN  
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THIS ACTIVITY COULD INCLUDE A COUPLE OF  
STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, THANKS TO 20-30KT BULK SHEAR  
AND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE  
PRIMARY HAZARD.  
 
ON SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF  
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY PASSAGE OVER THE  
REGION. HIGHER DEW PTS PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN  
CONJUNCTION WITH 700MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP PWATS IMPROVE TO  
1.00-1.50" AREA WIDE. OVERALL, CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK RATHER  
PROMISING SUNDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (50-80% POPS), INCLUDING  
THE POTENTIAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS (20-50% PROBABILITY  
FOR >0.50" RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES). THE BEST UPPER  
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE TROUGH AXIS,  
WHICH IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER  
SOUTH, THE LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A ROLE  
IN THE AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. A FEW CAMS SHOW THE  
BOUNDARY PROCEEDING SOUTH OF OUR CWA, WHICH COULD LEAVE THE CENTRAL  
PANHANDLES WITH LESS SHOWERS AND STORMS. REGARDLESS, WE WILL HAVE  
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO EXIST IN OUR  
FORECAST AREA LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PROBABILITIES MAY BE  
LOW, BUT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LIKELY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA  
PORTRAYING LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS >1.00" BY MONDAY MORNING, FAVORING  
AREAS NORTH OF I-40. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY ALSO EXIST  
FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND  
HAIL THREAT. TEMPERATURE WISE, 90S WILL BE THE NORM WITH A STRAY  
INSTANCE OR TWO OF TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE SE, AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LOW  
80S IN THE NW.  
 
HARREL  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025  
 
BY MONDAY, MEDIUM-LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE A PIECE OF THE TROUGH  
LINGERING BEHIND THE PARENT WAVE, MAINTAINING A PATTERN THAT WOULD  
BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST TRENDS  
SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION MONDAY  
EVENING, WITH A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO SUNDAY. ANY STRONGER STORMS  
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. CLOUD COVER  
THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS RELATIVELY COOL IN THE  
80S. TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE STAGNANT IN THE WAKE OF THE  
UPPER TROUGH, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR  
20-30% PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WEDNESDAY ONWARD, PRECIP CHANCES DROP  
BELOW 15%, AND TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 90S.  
THANKFULLY IT LOOKS LIKE 100S AREN'T SET TO COME BACK DURING THE  
LONG TERM AS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.  
 
HARREL  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL  
TAF SITES. TSRA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z, BUT  
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS  
WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5-10 KTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...38  
LONG TERM....38  
AVIATION...29  
 
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