020
FXUS64 KAMA 091820
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
120 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE ON SUNDAY STARTING AS EARLY AS THE
MID-AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CAN'T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT A DAMAGING WIND GUST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
BUT THE PRIMARY HAZARD MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL DUE TO HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK UP MIDWEEK, WITH LOWER
CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION, WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL REVERSAL TO A
MOIST PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED IN THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES, WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH FROM DALHART TO GUYMON, AND AREAS NORTHWEST
OF THAT LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER, WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
IN THAT AREA, BUT SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT LINE DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT
LOWER AND WINDS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW IT DOESN'T
LOOK LIKE THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY, BUT COULD
SHIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKS LIKE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED IN THE 5 TO 7 PM TIME FRAME
AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING, AND SHEAR WILL BE BETTER AT THAT POINT AS
WELL. ML CAPE VALUES CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND TO THE NORTH WILL
BE MORE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE, BUT MAY BE TOO CAPPED OFF TO
GET STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME FORCING TO HELP
OUT FROM THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN CO. THE BEST
SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE UP IN THAT AREA TO WESTERN KS. FURTHER SOUTH
IN THE SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL PANHANDLES, WE MAY STILL GET SOME
SCATTERED STORMS POPPING UP THIS EVENING, BUT ML CAPE VALUES LOOK TO
BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AS LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP RAISE THE LCL'S
AND FURTHER SOUTH THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND BAG STORMS. THERE
ARE SOME CAM'S THAT DON'T EVEN SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTH SO IT MAY BE ALL TO THE NORTH AND IN CO/KS TODAY. STILL HAVE
POPS FOR THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. LOW
CHANCE (~10%) THAT WE MANAGE TO GET A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE SOUTH
THIS EVENING. WITH THAT, DID NOTICE A POTENTIAL ONION SOUNDING AT
KAMA THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME STRATIFORM HIGH WIND
GUSTS TONIGHT, OR EVEN A POSSIBLE HEAT BURST. SHIFTING TO
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 WHILE
THE SOUTHEAST MAY STILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES TODAY.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE MORE OF A POSITIVE TILT TO IT AND
LOOKS TO DRAW UP MORE MOISTURE TO THE PANHANDLES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PEAK HEATING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LINE UP WELL WITH SOME
AFTERNOON FORCING WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH, AND ADD
THE REMAINING BOUNDARY FROM WHAT'S LEFT OVER FROM TODAY, WE CAN
ANTICIPATE MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW
EVENING. WITH HIGHER PWAT'S 1.25-1.50" RANGE ON SUNDAY WE CAN
EXPECT HEAVIER RAIN RATES. NOW THE BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS WILL
STILL BE TO THE NORTH GIVEN WHERE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS TO SETUP,
HOWEVER, WILL NOT DISCOUNT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLES
GETTING SCATTERED TO EVEN WIDESPREAD STORMS, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
WITH THAT MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL SOMEWHAT STALLED OVER THE
PANHANDLES ON MONDAY, WE'LL GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE PUMPED
INTO THE AREA, WITH A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SETUP. THIS HAS A POTENTIAL SETUP FOR ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WPC HAS US IN THE MARGINAL ACROSS ALL AREAS FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST
THAT WEAK RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO TAKE OVER, AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO
HEAT UP A BIT MORE, AND STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE, BUT STILL WILL
NOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH SLOW WARM UP BACK INTO THE 90S BY WEDNESDAY. FURTHER OUT IT
APPEARS A BROAD SCALE HIGH WILL TRY TO SET UP CENTERED OVER THE
LOUISIANA AREA WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH COULD HELP PUMP MORE MOISTURE TO THE PANHANDLES
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AND POPS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE
RISE.
WEBER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WINDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
AT KAMA AND KDHT, AND WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT KGUY.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CURRENTLY HOLDING
OFF ON ANY MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. WITH A COLD FRONT THAT'S
EXPECTED TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT WE CAN EXPECT WIND
CHANGES THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE TO BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING AT KDHT AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT KAMA.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89
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