379
FXUS64 KAMA 101747
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
A COMPLEX OF STORMS IN COLORADO IS FINALLY STARTING TO MOVE EAST
THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS HAVE PUSHED OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT IS NEARLY TO THE OK PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT DUE TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BEFORE THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER, A FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH POTENTIALLY A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PANHANDLES, THERE WILL BE MANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION
AREAS TO WATCH FOR TODAY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR
ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER AN INCH
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT STORMS
POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER. WITH THAT BEING SAID, FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCALIZED AREAS. ADDITIONALLY,
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY MORNING.
THE CWA ON MONDAY WILL BE LOCATED AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES. PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST HOW MUCH IS ABLE
TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IT MAY DEPEND ON HOW
LONG CONVECTION LASTS ON MONDAY MORNING. IF THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS PAN OUT, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE
LEFT THE NBM POPS WHICH ARE UPWARDS OF 60-70 PERCENT. STORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT IF THEY ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
H500 LOW PRESSURE MAY REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES
ON TUESDAY. SOME MODELS EVEN INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING THE
LOW TO THE NORTH, THERE MAY BE PVA ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEING SHOWN IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD
RIDGING DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOOKS TO PREVAIL WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN US. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME FRAME BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION SO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS IF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
REACHED OR SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE PLAINS.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF, WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE
TO SHOWERS AND STORMS AT ALL TAF SITES GENERALLY FROM 00Z-12Z.
KAMA WILL BE MORE IN THE 0-06Z TIME FRAME, AND KDHT/KGUY WILL BE
MORE IN THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 10-15KTS AT KAMA AND KDHT, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY
OUT OF KGUY. PROB30S CURRENTLY SET UP FOR STORMS, BUT WILL TRY TO
BRING MORE PREVAILING GROUPS WITH 00Z TAFS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
ON TIMING.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...89
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