777  
FXUS64 KAMA 110140  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
840 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
   
..NEW UPDATE  
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
MID LEVEL DRY AIR, AS MODELS HAVE SHOWN WELL AND WAS OBSERVED BY  
THE 00Z KAMA RAOB, HAS LIMITED SHOWERS AND STORMS SO FAR THIS  
EVENING FOR THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS  
TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS  
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES THROUGH 3 AM. THERE IS  
SOME CONCERN THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH MAY NOT PAN OUT  
SO WELL, BUT FORECAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO RAPID STORM  
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON  
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW  
MORNING WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.  
 
MUSCHA  
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND MONDAY ACROSS THE  
PANHANDLES. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING  
AS WELL.  
 
- BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING EACH AFTERNOON FROM  
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN COME NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE GREAT  
LAKES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS ON TODAY'S SEVERE  
WEATHER THREAT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS BEST TO THE NORTH ABOUT 30-45KTS  
IN THE OK PANHANDLE, BUT STILL ABOUT 20-30KTS TO THE SOUTH SO IF  
STORMS MANAGE TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTH,  
WE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OCCUR. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR  
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES IS THE FAIRLY STABLE LOWER LEVELS, AND WHILE  
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING, PROVIDING ENHANCED  
LIFT TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT, 18Z SOUNDING SHOWING OVER 300  
J/KG OF MLCIN IS NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED  
SATURATED LAYER BUT THAT WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY  
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THAT BEING SAID, AS WE MOVE FURTHER INTO THE  
EVENING MORE ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN  
ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND THAT WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER ELEVATED  
ENVIRONMENT, IN WHICH WE MIGHT GET 1000-1500 J/KG OF UNCAPPED CAPE,  
BUT SHEAR WILL BE DOWN AROUND 15-20KTS SO STORM ORGANIZATION AND  
SEVERITY AT THAT POINT IS NOT LOOKING AS PROMISING ACROSS THE  
SOUTH.  
 
FURTHER NORTH WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEVERE WEATHER LATER  
TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WE'LL  
HAVE SCATTERED SUPERCELLS DEVELOP IN EASTERN CO AND THESE STORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE LATER THIS EVENING. THE  
TAIL END OF THE STORMS COULD HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH THEM  
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE. PWAT'S ARE UP THERE AROUND  
1.50" THIS EVENING SO, VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THESE  
STORMS, AND THE HAIL THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE REDUCED DO TO THE MORE  
SATURATED NATURE OF THE SOUNDING. MLCAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND  
1000-1500 J/KG AND SHEAR WILL START TO GET A BIT WEAKER OVERNIGHT  
(AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS). THERE IS TECHNICALLY DECENT LOW LEVEL  
HELICITY THAT COULD SUPPORT TORNADOS THIS EVENING, BUT SURFACE BASED  
STORMS MAY BE A CHALLENGE V.S ELEVATED STORMS. THAT BEING SAID,  
CAN'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS IN  
SOUTHEAST CO ALLOWING FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO OVERCOME THE CAP  
AND NEW STORMS TO LATCH ON TO ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT COULD BE  
PRESENT. SO WHILE THE CONCERN IS VERY LOW (~2%), A TORNADO OR TWO  
CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE  
TONIGHT.  
 
MONDAY, THE OVERALL CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH DOESN'T MOVE MUCH AS  
THE PREVIOUS LOW EJECTS UP TO THE NORTHEAST, A NEW LOW DIPS DOWN  
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA, AND WITH THE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS DOESN'T  
MOVE MUCH OVER OUR AREA. BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE  
MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE.  
AS A RESULT WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS  
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE  
80S, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER AND THAT WILL HELP TO  
REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EASIER ACROSS MOST ARES, IN ADDITION  
TO THE FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE THAT'S EXPECTED TO MOVE  
THROUGH TOMORROW. PWAT'S AGAIN TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 1.30-1.60"  
RANGE SO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE A  
CONCERN.  
 
WEBER  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD BE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES WITH COOLER  
MORE STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE. THERE MAY BE SOME EARLY MORNING  
SHOWERS, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DONE WITH FOR  
THE MOST PART. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON A  
RISE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROPPING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE  
AGAIN ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, BUT WILL SLOWLY  
SHIFT EAST. BY SATURDAY THE HIGH MAY BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT RETURN  
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES AND POPS SHOULD  
ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.  
 
WEBER  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
 
AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE  
CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THANKS TO  
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND A PRESENT DRY LAYER IN THE MID-  
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS HAS SEEN CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS  
DRASTICALLY DECREASE FOR BOTH KAMA AND KDHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER, HAVE  
DECIDED TO KEEP A PROB30 GROUP PRESENT GIVEN THAT A FEW CAMS  
STILL HAVE AN ISOLATED STORM POPPING UP OVER THE AREA.  
REGARDLESS, KGUY STILL HAS THE BEST CHANCES AS WE GET CLOSER TO  
THE OVERNIGHT HOUR WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
SURFACE WINDS FOLLOWED BY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT COULD  
LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.  
 
 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...89  
LONG TERM....89  
AVIATION...11  
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