903
FXUS64 KAMA 120441
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1141 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
- TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTH OF I-40 EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AND
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATER IN THE MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT OCCURRING IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE TROUGH THAT AIDED IN GENERATING THE
THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EVEN
THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOSTLY GO AWAY TODAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE 80S AS WE ARE STILL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE H500
TROUGH. A VERY WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY
TRAVERSE OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 80S, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES ARE LOW FOR STORMS TO
OCCUR, AROUND 10 PERCENT, BUT A FEW CAMS ARE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET. HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE AT THIS TIME BUT IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, LOW END
10-20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR STORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN LATER ON
TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS PATTERN WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE ON THE RISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE POTENTIALLY OVERHEAD, HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE
HOTTEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY LATE THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW,
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES. IT
IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO INTO SPECIFICS, BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ON SOME OF THESE DAYS TO GET STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WITH
KAMA HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS. IF ANY STORMS MOVE OVER
THE TERMINAL, HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS OR A STORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. ONCE SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXIT THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THE REST OF THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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