133  
FXUS64 KAMA 121101  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
601 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
- TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS  
THE PANHANDLES.  
 
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE THIS  
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTH OF I-40 EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND  
STORMS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AND  
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM  
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATER IN THE MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE  
IN THAT OCCURRING IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE TROUGH THAT AIDED IN GENERATING THE  
THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EVEN  
THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOSTLY GO AWAY TODAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
STILL BE IN THE 80S AS WE ARE STILL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE H500  
TROUGH. A VERY WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY  
TRAVERSE OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES  
WARMING INTO THE 80S, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR  
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES ARE LOW FOR STORMS TO  
OCCUR, AROUND 10 PERCENT, BUT A FEW CAMS ARE HINTING AT THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET. HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW  
MENTIONABLE AT THIS TIME BUT IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, LOW END  
10-20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR STORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN LATER ON  
TODAY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY  
AND THIS PATTERN WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF  
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO  
MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL  
ALSO BE ON THE RISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 90S  
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  
 
MUSCHA  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025  
 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO  
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. WITH THE HIGH  
PRESSURE POTENTIALLY OVERHEAD, HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE  
HOTTEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID TO  
UPPER 90S AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE  
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY LATE THIS WEEK. THIS  
WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME  
FRAME AND WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW,  
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES. IT  
IS TOO FAR OUT TO GO INTO SPECIFICS, BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY ON SOME OF THESE DAYS TO GET STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS  
AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN.  
 
MUSCHA  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A  
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE PANHANDLES TODAY. THE CHANCES ARE STILL TO LOW TO BE REFLECTED  
WITHIN ANY OF THE TAFS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS THAT ARE PRONE TO  
LARGE DIRECTIONS SHIFT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY.  
 
 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...05  
LONG TERM....05  
AVIATION...98  
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