203
FXUS64 KAMA 130509
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1209 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
- DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATUERS LOOKING HEAT BACK NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY
THURSDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORM, AND CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
SLIGHTLY QUIETER WEATHER MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES AS
MODELS SEE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK IN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY CUT THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE GULF MOISTURE THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OFF
AND ON THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER, AND ALLOW US BIT OF DRIER WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, WE MAY GET AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE PANHANDLES WHERE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN NEW MEXICO FOR BOTH TODAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE CHANCES OF THESE STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE
PANHANDLES IS ON LOWER END WITH MOST MODEL SOLELY RELYING ON THE
THE TROUGH GIVEN HOW WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE. EITHER
WAY, ANY STORMS THAT DO MAKE IT TO THE PANHANDLES WILL NEED TO BE
WATCH AS PRESENT CAMS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST 1500 J/KG OF DCAPE
COULD BE IN PLAY, WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR EVEN A WEAK STORM TO PRODUCE
A DECENT WIND GUST AS IT COLLAPSES. OTHERWISE, CONCERNS START TO
SHIFT TO THE HEAT FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH MOST MODELS SEEING
TEMPERATURES CLOSE IN ON THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK BY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
AS WE BEGIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK, MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO
SEE THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PLACEMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE MID AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFT
INTO A BETTER POSITION TO PUSH GULF MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLES.
IN TURN, HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY ALONGSIDE BETTER CHANCES AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES WILL ONLY INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PANHANDLES CURRENTLY SEEING A 20 TO 30%
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THAT COULD LAST CLEAR INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT WITH THESE
CHANCES, CONCERNS OF FLOODING MAY BECOMING THE BIGGER ISSUE. IN
CORRESPONDENCE WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE, MODELS ARE SEEING PWAT
VALUES JUMP BACK ABOVE 1 INCH WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH NEAR THE 1.5
INCH MARK AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT COULD ADD UP OVER THE MULTIPLE DAYS OF
CHANCES. REGARDLESS TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING MOISTURE, BUT SHOULD STILL HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S CLEAR INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY
12 KTS OR LESS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...36
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