616
FXUS64 KAMA 131647
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
- TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A DAILY BASIS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, PRIMARILY IN THE EVENING HOURS.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT WITH TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY
AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
EXPECTING A HIGH IN THE LOW TO MID-90S TODAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES,
AND MID-90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH PALO DURO
CANYON FOR A POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY ON THURSDAY AS THE MAX HEAT
INDEX IS APPROACHING CRITERIA (FORECAST 102 DEGREES, CRITERIA 105
DEGREES). CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN 5 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THIS
SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES.
AS THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OFF TO THE EAST, FLOW ALOFT
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE PANHANDLES. AS A
RESULT, MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF AND PACIFIC WILL OCCUR AND WE
COULD SEE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT KICK OFF
THUNDERSTORMS IN NEW MEXICO AND/OR THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS TRUE FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, BUT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER CHANCE AT THIS TIME AS
THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED DISTURBANCE THAT IMPACTS MORE OF
THE PANHANDLES.
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN COULD CONTINUE TO SOME EXTENT ON MONDAY,
BUT THAT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THE SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT
STORMS CLEAR OUT.
GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE COLORADO ROCKIES.
CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO ROUND THE RIDGE,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN IN THE DAYTIME
MORNING HOURS AT 10-15 KTS.
VANDEN BOSCH
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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