188
FXUS64 KAMA 150517
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
- TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US TO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. H850 TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE NOTABLE
HOT SPOTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, SUCH AS THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY AND PALO DURO CANYON, WILL LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT CHANCE)
HIT THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR TODAY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST DATA
FROM THE NBM, THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH 105 (HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA) IN ANY LOCATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IS VERY,
VERY LOW FOR TODAY (UNDER 5 PERCENT).
THE PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS TO HIT 100 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION AS THE H500 CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. IN FACT, THERE IS ONLY A 5-10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS TO HIT THAT TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY TRY TO MAKE THE TREK
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO TO WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY
EVENING, BUT CHANCES FOR THAT PANNING OUT ARE QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
THE STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE
ORIGINALLY TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST AND BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE
FOR MID AUGUST. PLENTY OF MONSOONAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE THIS WEEK FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AS
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND HIGHS APPROACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON. NO SPECIFIC DAY STANDS OUT
RIGHT NOW FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS
POPS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...98
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