074
FXUS64 KAMA 291133
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING BOTH NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
IT IS QUITE HUMID ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH HAS PUSHED DEW PTS WELL INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS ALSO SET TO PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS HOWEVER, REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL EXISTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL PANHANDLES, WHILE LOWER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO OCCUR SATURDAY
EVENING AS WELL.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WE FIND OURSELVES BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A BROAD H500 RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL
HELP USHER IN A SMALL BUT POTENT PERTURBATION WITHIN THE FLOW, TO
INITIATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
OF NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED TO, THERE
IS CERTAINLY NO SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS WE CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK. PWAT VALUES OF 1-1.5" ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES, AND ARE PROGGED TO FURTHER IMPROVE BY THE EVENING
HOURS. A CORRIDOR OF 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES, IN
THE PRESENCE OF 30-50KT BULK SHEAR. THESE PARAMETERS FAVOR
ORGANIZED, ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. DCAPE VALUES AND MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL RESPECTIVELY, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
FOR BOTH THREATS WITH ANY STORM THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE SHEAR. MOST HI-RES CAMS SHOW THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS MOVING OUT OF NM AND INTO THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL
PANHANDLES DURING THE EVENING HOURS, POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE
LINEAR WITH TIME BEFORE EVENTUALLY JOGGING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. IF THIS COMPLEX TRACKS FURTHER EAST OF
THE CORRIDOR OF BEST INSTABILITY, IT SHOULD WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY
AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN PANHANDLES, LEAVING MORE STRATIFORM
RAIN. HOWEVER, IF IT RIDES THE AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE AND DIVES
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE NM STATE LINE, IT MAY MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
LONGER, BUT COULD MISS EVEN MORE OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CWA.
ONCE THE COMPLEX EXITS, WE'LL WATCH FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, BUT THE INFLUENCE OF
TODAY'S CONVECTION LEAVES MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS REGARDING WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE ARE A
COUPLE THINGS WE'LL HAVE GOING FOR US IN FAVOR OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BEGIN INTRUDING BEHIND
TONIGHT'S STORMS, PREVENTING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
REGARDLESS, VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THOUGH, SO WE'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER ENOUGH BY THEN. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS BULLISH FOR NOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING (50-
80%). BOTH OF THESE EVENTS WILL ALSO POSE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING RAINFALL, WITH MEDIUM PROBABILITIES FOR TOTALS >1 INCH AND
LOW CHANCES FOR TOTALS TO EXCEED 2-3 INCHES.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS,
FURTHER SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
ALSO SHUNT THE BULK OF BETTER MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION, WHILE
UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE STEERED ELSEWHERE. THIS LOOKS TO CHANGE BY
MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN MOISTURE FINDS ITS WAY BACK TO US, BRINGING
POPS BACK TO 20-50%. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA DIVERGE AROUND THIS TIME
FRAME REGARDING SYNOPTIC FEATURES THOUGH, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
80S EACH DAY, UNTIL A POTENTIAL FRONT ARRIVES AND PROVIDES A
FURTHER COOL DOWN THURSDAY ONWARD.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
A RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED TO START THE 12Z
TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. BETWEEN 16-18Z, ALL TAF SITES SHOULD
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LEVELS. PROB30 GROUP THEN INTRODUCED AROUND
00Z FOR TSRA CONDITIONS WHERE ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEN AROUND 07-09Z THROUGH TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, MVFR AND
IFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN, OVERALL WINDS
TODAY WILL BE OUT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...29
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