695
FXUS64 KAMA 310600
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- RAIN CHANCES FALL OFF SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES
RETURNING MID TO LATE WEEK.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO END AUGUST AND START
SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
RELATIVELY QUIETER CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TO START THE WEEK. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND DOESN'T APPEAR TO
PROVIDE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES TO INITIATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER,
IF ANY SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE FLOW MATERIALIZE AND MANAGE
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF WHATEVER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE, A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS/STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS (<20%
CHANCE). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE 80S TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WITH MONDAY TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE
BOARD COMPARED TO TODAY.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
MODEL DATA MOSTLY AGREES THAT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAIL TO
PROVIDE ANY WEATHER MAKER TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, MAINTAINING
HIGHS IN THE 80S. FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD, ENSEMBLE DATA STILL
SUPPORTS A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THIS PAST WEEK WITH ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION, MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED TO THE PANHANDLES. WEAK COLD FRONTS AND
STORM SYSTEMS HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITIES OF CREATING
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY WED-SAT. ANOTHER BYPRODUCT OF THIS PATTERN
WILL BE A COUPLE COOLER DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S
RATHER THAN THE 80S. REGARDLESS, WE HAVE 40-70% PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START SEPTEMBER.
HARREL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR KAMA, AND VCSH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED AT KDHT.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY AROUND OR LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ004-005-009>020-
317.
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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