574
FXUS64 KAMA 030435
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1135 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
- THERE IS AROUND LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE WIND GUST UP TO 70 MPH.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES, AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE SANDWICHED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US, AND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
90S. AN WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW ALOFT, AIDED BY THE POTENTIAL
TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA, COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-
V SIGNATURES WITH DCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-1700 J/KG. WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY, DRY MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER
OR ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP. GIVEN A FORECAST
FORWARD MOTION OF 20-25 MPH IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL, A ROGUE WIND GUST UP TO 70 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT
THE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING TO SOME EXTENT.
A SUB-1000MB SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AND CAUSE
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID-
90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN AROUND 90 DEGREES. ONCE AGAIN, AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED COULD
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES SEEM TO BE MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. DCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500-1800 J/KG
WITH A FORWARD MOTION OF AROUND 20 MPH, SUGGESTING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS ARE FAVORED DUE TO THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE 30-40 KT LLJ BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL LEAVE THE NBM
WINDS IN THE FOR NOW, BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. THE SPEED
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE DAY, RESULTING IN FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S.
IT'S ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE THAT EVEN THIS IS OVERDONE; WON'T BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS STAY IN THE UPPER-60S. MEANWHILE,
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT TROPICAL STORM LORENA, NOW IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS. A
DISTURBANCE ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS COULD BEGIN TO WORK
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE.
THE REMNANTS OF CURRENT TROPICAL STORM LORENA WILL POTENTIALLY WORK
INTO WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND, BUT MODEL DISAGREEMENTS LOOM LARGE
REGARDING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SYSTEM (SPEED, HOW QUICK IT
DIMINISHES, TRACK, ETC). REGARDLESS, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND ANY SUBTLE DISTURBANCE COULD BE THE
CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ANY CASE, IT WILL
CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE FALL TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. THE NBM IS SHOWING HIGHS IN THE UPPER-60S TO
70S THIS WEEKEND, BUT IF THERE IS PERSISTENT RAIN OR WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY, THE NBM IS TOO WARM.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY, BUT EARLY HINTS
ARE THAT AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE LEFTOVER BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION, BUT AT
LEAST LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEMS REASONABLE.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT 10 KTS
OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KDHT AND KGUY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, CHANGING THE WINDS TO
NORTHERLY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS INTO THE EVENING. STRONG
DOWNDRAFT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. HAVE
LEFT MENTIONS OF IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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