582
FXUS64 KAMA 091135
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
- SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY RETURN THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
RECENT WEATHER HAS PROVED TO BE QUITE THE CASE FOR TENDENCY OF A
SECONDARY FALL PEAK IN SEVERE WEATHER ANY GIVEN YEAR, WHICH MAY
RESUME AGAIN LATER TODAY. SCATTERED STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING AND WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70
MPH. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S AND DRIER AIR AT THE SFC
WILL HELP KEEP HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS AT BAY, LIMITING CHANCES FOR
FLOODING. BY WEDNESDAY, DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN, DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MAINTAINING HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STICK AROUND FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY
TODAY, USHERING IN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO THE REGION. INITIALLY,
ONLY WEAK AMOUNTS OF LIFT WILL MATERIALIZE, BUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
700MB THETA-E ADVECTION, COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL PANHANDLES SOMETIME AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. THE
UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-2500 J/KG CAPE,
1500-2000 J/KG DCAPE, AND ~30 KTS SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR. THESE
PARAMETERS SUGGEST ANY ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS MAY TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF
COOL MID-LEVELS (-8 TO -9C 500MB TEMPS) AND DRY LOW-LEVELS (INVERTED-
V SIGNATURES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS) TO PRODUCE SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.
LATER IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS, A DEEPER SHORTWAVE IS SET
TO ROUND THE CREST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER KANSAS, AND WILL
HAVE ABOUT A 15% CHANCE TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES. BY WED NIGHT, A STRONG PUSH OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH, ENDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE 60S.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE DATA GENERALLY AGREE THE WARM AND DRIER TREND IS
PERPETUATED THU-FRI AS WE REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROUGHING TO OUR
EAST AND A BROAD CLOSED LOW CHURNING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION, AS IS REFLECTED
BY NBM POPS STAYING <15% UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEEKEND IS WHEN MODELS PROJECT
THE CLOSED LOW TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND EJECT A TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS HYPOTHETICAL TROUGH EJECTION
ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR, BUT WOULD INDEED PROMOTE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
RAINFALL PROBABILITIES ARE LOW FOR NOW, ONLY 15-30% PANHANDLES WIDE,
BUT COULD TREND UPWARD IF MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
SLOWLY MAKING IT WAY EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. AT THIS
TIME KGUY IS EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN AND AROUND THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL, WHILE KAMA WAS BEGINNING TO SEE CLOUD
COVER STARTING TO BUILD OVER THEM. THESE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS PRESENT SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES FILLING IN
BEHIND THE LINE THAT WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS HOLDING.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES LOOK
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO START IN THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT IMPACTS
WILL OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS FOR THIS PACKAGE, BUT THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE PRESENT
SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM OCCUR.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...11
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