891
FXUS64 KAMA 100533
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1233 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
STORM CHANCES RAMP UP THIS WEEKEND.
- AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONSISTENTLY BE IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
AS OF LATE TONIGHT GOING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, RADAR WAS
CONTINUING TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. CURRENTLY THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOW ON A DOWNWARD
TREND WITH THE ATMOSPHERE NOW EFFECTIVELY CAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, WE MAY NOT BE OFFICIALLY OVER AS A MAJORITY OF THE THE
CAMS HAVE SEEN THE PRESENT ACTIVITY OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST BY SUNRISE. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE ON
WHETHER THESE STORMS CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES ENOUGH TO BYPASS THE
CAP AND CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. BASED OFF THE
LATEST RADAR, THE CHANCES OF SEVERE ARE LEAN ON THE LOWER SIDE AS
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. REGARDLESS
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FALL OFF BY THE MID MORNING, WHICH GIVES
THE PANHANDLES A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER. BY THIS EVENING,
A FEW CAMS DO HAVE MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
PRESENT, BUT WITH HOW OVERWORKED THE ATMOSPHERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS DRASTICALLY DECREASED. STILL THERE
ARE SOME MODEL SUGGESTING THAT WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, DRIER WEATHER LOOKS
TO SLOWLY WIN OUT FOR THE PANHANDLES FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE TOP OF THE PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD FOR THE START OF FRIDAY AS MODELS SEE
THE PRESENT RIDGE START TO FORCE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND OFF THE
PANHANDLES. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH THAT
HAS SLOWLY BEEN DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTO NEVADA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO LOOK TO FOLLOW FOR
THE EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUE PROGRESS NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY, PRESENT GUIDANCE HAS
PLACED THE PANHANDLES’ BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY,
WITH THESE CHANCES BEING AROUND 20 TO 40%. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH RETREATS NORTH, CHANCES MAY WANE WITH DIRER
AIR WINNING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES. BY MONDAY, MODEL AGREEMENT
STARTS TO GET MUDDY AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TRY TO CYCLE A NEW
RIDGE AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE
ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE RIDGE AND DRIER WEATHER WINNING
OUT THROUGH TUESDAY AS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP TO 15% OR
LESS. OTHERWISE, A COOL DOWN LOOKS TO FOLLOW THIS INCOMING SYSTEM
FRIDAY THAT WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY PASSING OVER KGUY AND KDHT AT
TIMES. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS NEAR KAMA, BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
WINDS WILL STAY GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-20 KTS, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...38
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