198
FXUS64 KAMA 110526
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1226 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
- HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
WE'RE BACK TO QUIETER WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR OVERTAKE THE REGION. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES DUE TO THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. BREEZY WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINTAINING POOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 60S THE NEXT COUPLE
MORNINGS. THESE WINDS WILL AID WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE DAYTIME,
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN TODAY
ALONG WITH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AT PALO DURO CANYON ARE PROJECTED TO
APPROACH BUT NOT EXCEED 100 TODAY, LIKELY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
WE'LL BE WATCHING FOR SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND AS GLOBAL MODELS PROJECT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS IS SET TO DRAW
AMPLE LIFT AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY, GENERATING PWATS
OF 1-1.5" THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT'S ARRIVAL SPELLS PEAK
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
(30-60% POPS). AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW A
700MB HIGH TO OUR EAST OVER THE OZARKS PULLING A DRY-SLOT THROUGHOUT
ITS WESTERN FLANK. THIS DRY FEATURE WILL LIKELY DICTATE THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF BETTER RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
(10-40%) FOR RAIN >0.5" FAVORING WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAIN IS PROGGED TO TAKE A HIATUS MON-TUE, BUT MODEL
AGREEMENT IS NOTABLY DEGRADED BY THIS TIME FRAME. STILL, ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES COULD ARRIVE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, PERPETUATING NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S)
AND LOW OPPORTUNITIES FOR ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.
HARREL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SOME MARGINAL LLWS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT AT KGUY TONIGHT, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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