907
FXUS64 KAMA 111749
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1249 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
- HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT MORE WARM AIR INTO
OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TODAY, HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
90'S WITH PALO DURO CANYON REACHING A FORECAST HIGH OF 99 DEGREES.
BASED OFF 07Z NBM-CONUS MEMBERS, THERE IS ALSO A 25% CHANCE THAT THE
CANYON REACHES 100 DEGREES TODAY. NO HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ISSUED, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THAT
HEAT RELATED ISSUES MAY OCCUR FOR THOSE WHO SPEND LONG PERIODS OF
TIME OUTDOORS UNPREPARED. TOMORROW, 850 MB TEMPERATURES DECREASE A
FEW DEGREES (IN CELSIUS) ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES, LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. UPPER 80'S ARE FORECAST IN THE WESTERN
ZONES OF OUR CWA, WHILE LOWER 90'S ARE IN PLAY FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
WE'LL BE WATCHING FOR SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND AS GLOBAL MODELS PROJECT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS IS SET TO DRAW
AMPLE LIFT AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY, GENERATING PWATS
OF 1-1.5" THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT'S ARRIVAL SPELLS PEAK
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
(30-60% POPS). AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW A
700MB HIGH TO OUR EAST OVER THE OZARKS PULLING A DRY-SLOT THROUGHOUT
ITS WESTERN FLANK. THIS DRY FEATURE WILL LIKELY DICTATE THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF BETTER RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
(10-40%) FOR RAIN >0.5" FAVORING WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAIN IS PROGGED TO TAKE A HIATUS MON-TUE, BUT MODEL
AGREEMENT IS NOTABLY DEGRADED BY THIS TIME FRAME. STILL, ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES COULD ARRIVE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, PERPETUATING NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S)
AND LOW OPPORTUNITIES FOR ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.
HARREL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
TAFS CONTINUE AS VFR THROUGH THE NEW 18Z PERIOD. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE
PRESENT AT DHT AND GUY TONIGHT DUE TO FAST CHANGES IN WIND SPEEDS
WITHIN THE FIRST 1,000 FT OF THE SURFACE. LLWS TAGS HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO EACH SITE TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW, WE
SHOULD SEE A LOCAL MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD DISPERSE. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...55
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