672
FXUS64 KAMA 112333
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INCREASED IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT MORE WARM AIR INTO
OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TODAY, HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
90'S WITH PALO DURO CANYON REACHING A FORECAST HIGH OF 99 DEGREES.
BASED OFF 07Z NBM-CONUS MEMBERS, THERE IS ALSO A 25% CHANCE THAT THE
CANYON REACHES 100 DEGREES TODAY. NO HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ISSUED, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THAT
HEAT RELATED ISSUES MAY OCCUR FOR THOSE WHO SPEND LONG PERIODS OF
TIME OUTDOORS UNPREPARED. TOMORROW, 850 MB TEMPERATURES DECREASE A
FEW DEGREES (CELSIUS) ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES, LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. UPPER 80'S ARE FORECAST IN THE
WESTERN ZONES OF OUR CWA, WHILE LOWER 90'S ARE IN PLAY FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
HAZARDS WE COULD SEE FROM THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE COMBINED PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST
AROUND SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
TROUGH WILL DICTATE THE EXTENT OF OUR HAZARDS FOR THE DAY, BUT
FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN RATHER THAN SEVERE. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS A CHANCE TO OCCUR AREAWIDE, BUT THE MOST FAVORED
ZONES ARE THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE LREF MEAN SHOW HIGH PWATS AND LONG
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. TROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE PACIFIC WEST COAST COULD ALSO
EXACERBATE OUR MOISTURE INFLUX ON SATURDAY. CURRENT NBM ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND EVEN THE NBM 5.0 SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR THESE
LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN, WHILE THE NBM 95TH
PERCENTILE CONTINUES TO OUTPUT QPF RANGES FROM TWO TO THREE INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THAT SAID, WE BELIEVE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR VALUES THIS WIDESPREAD IS MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT
GUIDANCE PORTRAYS. RATHER, THIS IS A MORE ACCURATE DISPLAY OF WHAT
ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE WITHIN A GIVE RADIUS OF THE FORECAST
POINT. THEREFORE, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE
THESE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS, BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AREAWIDE. A
SLOWER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS
ARE LOW ON SATURDAY, SOME THRESHOLDS ARE BEING MET. FORECAST
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MODEST (25-30 KTS) EFFECTIVE SHEAR,
AND COLD (<-5C) 500 MB TEMPERATURES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER, LOW DCAPE, LOW FREEZING LEVEL
HEIGHTS, AND A SATURATED MID-LAYER ARE STILL WORKING AGAINST
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS AND EVEN CONTINUE TILL SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT, NIGHT TIME FLOODING IS ANOTHER HIGH CONCERN WITH RAINFALL
THIS WEEKEND.
SUNDAY ONWARD, WE ENTER INTO MORE OF A QUIET PATTERN AGAIN. 500 MB
HEIGHTS MAY CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE A BIT IN THE EXTENDED, BUT
OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. HIGHS NEXT WEEK SHOULD
BE BOUND TO THE 80'S WITH A FEW AREA REACHING THE 90'S. DAILY POPS
GOING FORWARD STAY LOW, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
PREVALENT ON A DAY-BY-DAY BASIS. THE NBM LIKELY FAVORED THESE
LOWER POP VALUES DUE TO THE LOW STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THE
LONG RANGE MODELS.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 10-20
KTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page