032
FXUS64 KAMA 121749
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1249 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY -
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR A COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK, THIS "FRY-DAY"
MIGHT NOT BE YOUR CUP OF TEA. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNSHINE STAY IN
CONTROL TODAY, FORCING TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
ONCE AGAIN. WINDS ARE GONNA BE BREEZY AGAIN TODAY, SUSTAINED OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 15-25 MPH, GUSTING 30-35 MPH. DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE AND
PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM MATERIALIZING UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES THE PLAINS.
THIS IS SET TO DRAW SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIFT/DISTURBANCES AND
MOISTURE TO THE REGION, GENERATING PWATS OF 1-1.5" AND UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEW POINTS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE
ONGOING TO OUR WEST OVER NEW MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY
TRYING TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY.
EARLY ON, SHOWERS SHOULD STRUGGLE WITH WESTWARD EXTENT, LIKELY DUE
IN PART TO A 700MB HIGH TO OUR EAST OVER THE OZARKS PULLING A
DRY-SLOT OVER THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL PANHANDLES. INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S),
WHILE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD BUILD UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH CAPE
VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH 30-40KT
BULK SHEAR. IF PROPER DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR, SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER
THE PLAINS, WITH MODELS HAVING IT TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS
THE BASE REACHES THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MAXIMIZED LIFT TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION FURTHER EAST AS THE THE
DRY LAYER IS LIKELY ERODED BY THE TROUGH. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS QUITE EXCITED REGARDING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SAT-SAT
NIGHT, PRODUCING 40-70% POPS ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT OR
ANOTHER. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL THE VERY DISTINCT POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN QUITE SCATTERED AND TO DECAY WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT. IN GENERAL THOUGH, THE TRENDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. LOWER-END
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE COMING IN AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A 1/4"
(MORE LIKELY IF ACTIVITY REMAINS SHOWERY), WHILE HIGHER-END TOTALS
COULD EXCEED 1" (MORE LIKELY UNDER ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS).
HARREL
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION
FROM WHAT BEGAN ON SATURDAY. MOST SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
EAST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AND RAIN RATE ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH TIME. A FEW MODELS, LIKE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND NAM12, FAVOR THE IDEA OF PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD BRING
MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES, AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER
FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER, MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH,
OUT OF OUR AREA.
THOUGH THE NBM SEEMS CONSERVATIVE WITH IT'S POP VALUES, DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE COMBINED PANHANDLES SHOULD CONTINUE
MOST DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. THE COVERAGE OF THE STORMS IS STILL LOOKING
LOW, SO POPS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE COMING DAYS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 80'S WITH SOME 90'S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY,
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WOULD CREATE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT COULD
PUT SOME LOCATIONS, NAMELY THE NORTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA, BACK INTO
THE 70'S FOR HIGHS.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
TAFS PREVAIL AS VFR FOR THE NEW 18Z PERIOD. LIKE YESTERDAY,
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL
AFTERNOON. BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME, BREEZY SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST A BIT LONGER AFTER NIGHTFALL. WINDS
MAY NOT BECOME LIGHT (<12 KTS) UNTIL THE 07Z TO 09Z TIME WINDOW.
AFTER A PERIOD OF TIME SATURDAY MORNING, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page