974
FXUS64 KAMA 140530
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1230 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE, WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD REMAIN CONSISTENTLY IN THE 80S,
OTHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE SOME AREAS MAY KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL BE
ONGOING AS THE SUN RISES THIS MORNING. THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE THE AREAS THAT MAY HOLD ONTO SOME RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE PANHANDLES HOLDING ONTO ENOUGH
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE EAST BEING FAVORED FOR THESE
CHANCES. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS BEING A BIT STRONGER TODAY
(LEADING TO SOMEWHAT HIGHER WIND SHEAR) AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE SEVERE PARAMETERS ABOVE COMBINED WITH COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES, BUT A DAMAGING WIND GUST IS NEVER OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN GENERAL
SHOULD WRAP UP BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH SITTING OVER THE REGION.
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ON MONDAY SHOULD AID IN KEEPING THE PANHANDLES
ON THE DRY SIDE DURING THE DAY. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL OVER
THE CWA AS A TROUGH SITS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HEADING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID
20S CELSIUS BY PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY ALLOWING HIGHS TO BE RIGHT
AROUND AVERAGE FOR MID SEPTEMBER. OVERALL, MONDAY APPEARS TO BE A
RATHER NICE EARLY AUTUMN DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH PVA TO GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, BUT THERE
IS AT LEAST LOW END CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THAT TIME
FRAME. A SECONDARY, SOMEWHAT STRONGER, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY DIG SOUTH ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OF THE US. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE
SOUTHERN LOW FURTHER SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY TO PROVIDE MORE LIFT FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH FOR WILL BE A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WHEN
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRESENT, THE
SURFACE FRONT COULD AID IN LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS OF
THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE RAIN CHANCES, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, AND
THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE
70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH DAYS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SUBTLE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 80S AREA
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL DEPEND
UPON MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER KAMA WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST BETWEEN 06-07Z. MAIN
THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE
IN NEAR SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KAMA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE TAFS AT THIS POINT AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE
REQUIRED IF THE LOW CLOUDS DO MOVE IN NEAR OR AFTER 12Z.
OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OVER THE REGION BY MID DAY AND
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z AND ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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