654
FXUS64 KAMA 141620
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1120 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE IS LOW, CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLES TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. MEANWHILE,
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES WITH LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AS OF MID-MORNING.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON, AND DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. A SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE
REGARDING THE CLOUDS THAT PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE,
AND HOW LONG THEY WILL HOLD INTO THE AFTERNOON. IF THE CLOUDS
PERSIST TOO LONG, DESTABILIZATION MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE FAVORED IN
THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CLOUD COVER
WAS NOT A FACTOR THIS MORNING, AND IS THE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING. MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 J/KG TO
2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KTS,
SUGGESTING MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SOME SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK, BUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY, HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LARGER HAILSTONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY VERIFIES, PARTICULARLY IF A SUPERCELL CAN TAP INTO
GREATER INSTABILITY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM OR MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER, BUT A WIND GUST UP TO 70
MPH COULD OCCUR WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED SUPERCELL OR MULTICELL.
ADDITIONALLY, A FEW CAMS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CEASE IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART AND HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY WHICH IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAK TO
NON-EXISTENT, WON'T BE ABLE TO RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AS TEMPERATURES REACH OR EXCEED CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES, WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BUT IT MAY BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
COLORADO. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES COULD
WORK INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT
RETREATS. THE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW AT THIS POINT, THOUGH IT WILL DEPEND UPON THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ABLE TO BE REALIZED.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE REGARDING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN,
BUT GENERALLY THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TRY TO BUILD IN THE WESTERN US WITH TROUGHINESS CONTINUING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES INTO
THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD
CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KAMA, BUT SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND
18Z TO 19Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS
AFTERWARD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...36
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