146
FXUS64 KAMA 150535
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1235 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
BEING POSSIBLE.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED STORMS TODAY MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM ARE
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH
THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING
OR FLASH FLOODING. STORMS ARE MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY SO THAT IS
ADDING A BIT TO THAT POTENTIAL. ONCE THAT ACTIVITY
WEAKENS/DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR
SUNRISE. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES SO BE CAREFUL IF DRIVING
THROUGH FOG THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEYOND SUNRISE.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY AS WE
WILL BE IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO A RELATIVELY CALM DAY IS IN STORE FOR
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH PERHAPS A FEW 90S MIXED IN AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL COME WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SUBTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH AREAS REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS TODAY. THE 15/12Z CAMS ARE HINTING AT THIS ACTIVITY SO HAVE
INCLUDED VERY LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SCENARIO. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS BUT IF A STORM CAN REMAIN ATTACHED TO ANY BOUNDARIES,
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF THE STORM COULD BECOME ROBUST
ENOUGH. THE STORM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT.
H300 TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. FOR THE PANHANDLES, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE
LIFT TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN COLORADO TO START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT,
THERE COULD BE SHOWERS OR STORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
BEGIN THE DAY. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AND AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER OVER THE REGION.
WITH CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES,
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAY NEED TO BE DECREASED AND THE NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC NBM. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AS IS FOR NOW SINCE THE DIFFERENCE IS MARGINAL AT THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AS RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY GET PUSHED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH
MOVES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, BUT THAT POTENTIAL VARIES IN THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
IN GENERAL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN VARIES TREMENDOUSLY IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK RIDGE DOES LOOK TO
ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WEST TEXAS DURING
THIS TIME. TROUGHING FURTHER EAST MAY KEEP THE PANHANDLES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES, BUT OTHER
MODELS HAVE THE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS FAVORABLE
FOR RAIN CHANCES. EVEN WITH THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT, IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S GOING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES STARTING AROUND 09Z. MVFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IF FOG
DEVELOPS AT THE TERMINALS. FOG WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KGUY/KAMA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANCES ARE
ONLY AROUND 10-15 PERCENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTIONS IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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