741
FXUS64 KAMA 151729
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1229 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, TUESDAY,
AND FRIDAY. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TODAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN
EITHER A WEAK NEUTRAL WEST TO EAST FLOW OR A WEAK RIDGE. THIS IS
KEEPING THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE CONVERGENT AREA OF A UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS IS
PROVIDING BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS IS CRUCIAL AS IT PROVIDES A COUNTER FORCE TO
THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
FOR TODAY THE LOW TO MID ENVIRONMENT IS SHOWING STEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A WARM MOIST SURFACE WHICH IS PRODUCING UPWARDS OF
2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH A FEW SPOTS EVEN HIGHER PAST 3000 J/KG.
THE LOW TO MID ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS IN THE 30S KT RANGE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS WELL. THESE WOULD NORMALLY BE INDICATIVE OF A
POTENTIAL EXPLOSIVE ATMOSPHERE CONDUCIVE FOR POWERFUL
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER SINCE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL ARE OPPOSED BY
THE UPPER LEVELS THE CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM TODAY
WILL BE VERY LOW. AS THE STORMS WILL BE STRUGGLING TO FORM IN THE
FIRST PLACE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CHANCES WILL BE REMOTE
BUT NOT COMPLETELY ZERO.
TUESDAY WILL SEE BROADLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY FOR THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A
CONFLICTED ENVIRONMENT WITH LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT.
THIS WILL CHANGE COME THE EVENING WHEN THE WEATHER SYSTEM FINALLY
MAKES IT WAY INTO THE NW PANHANDLES. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS TIME THE
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE AS ENERGETIC WITH CAPE
FALLING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR DROPPING TO THE 20S KT. THIS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE WEATHER SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A LINE
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE STORMS WITHIN THIS LINEAR FEATURE MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IF THEY ARE ABLE TO FULLY UTILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY.
WITH THE BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO INDUCE WARMING BOTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A VERY HIGH CHANCE OF A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE MID TO SOUTHERN PLAINS IMPACTING THE PANHANDLES. FOR
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE IS MODERATE CHANCE FOR CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCES THAT THESE CONTINUE TO THE
MID TO LATER MORNING DROP TO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE MAINLY IN
THE NW PANHANDLES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE IN THE PANHANDLES LEADING TO A MODERATE TO HIGH
CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE THIS LATER ROUND OF
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES IT IS FAVORING MORE
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR WEDNESDAY
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS THAT IT MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING REMAINS LOW AS IT IS FULLY POSSIBLE
THAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS BLANKET THE PANHANDLES ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THE ENVIRONMENT FROM BECOMING THAT UNSTABLE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR IS THAT THE PASSAGE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE DESSERT SW INTO THE PANHANDLES.
IF THIS COME TO FRUITION IT WILL LEAD TO A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
FOR THE ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW ANY RAIN
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT OCCUR TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
WILL POSE A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT. WHAT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS A SIMPLE DROP IN
THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY MORNING HAS A MODERATE CHANCE OF SEEING CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. THERE WILL THEN BE A LOW CHANCE FOR FURTHER RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
DAYTIME HEATING. THURSDAY WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT BE A COOLER
DAY AS THE COOLER AIR OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HAS A MODERATE CHANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SLOWLY SHIFTING TO A RIDGE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A SLOW DECREASE IN
THE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THIS WOULD
SEE THE CHANCE GO FROM LOW TO VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT INCREASE DURING THIS TIME
RETURNING BACK TO 80S TO LOW 90S.
THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS CERTAIN GOING INTO NEXT WEEK A LARGE JET
STREAK HAS A MODERATE CHANCE OF FORMING IN NW PORTIONS OF NORTH
AMERICA AND MOVING TOWARDS CONUS. SUCH A FEATURE WOULD RESHAPE THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DRASTICALLY WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMY PANHANDLES WEATHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FROM THE LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF THESE MANAGE TO IMPACT A
TERMINAL THEN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR. HOWEVER THE CHANCES
OF THESE IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL ARE VERY LOW AND WILL NOT BE
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT TAFS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKLY GUSTY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98
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