549
FXUS64 KAMA 160532
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
- LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, A TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS WYOMING, MONTANA, AND
IDAHO AND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RAINFALL TO THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THAT OCCURS, WARM BUT SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S. HIGHS MAY ONCE AGAIN REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, HAVE INCLUDED LOW END 15-20 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR RAIN AREA WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL.
SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY, BUT A
STRONG STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT GIVEN FORECAST INVERTED V SOUNDINGS.
A BIT MORE STORM COVERAGE MAY START TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, THIS
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT, WITH ONLY A 10-20 PERCENT
CHANCE TO EXCEED A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BASED
ON THE LATEST NBM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANCES MAY
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE
HAS BEEN SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING IN DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS MOST NOTABLE
IN THE NAM, WHICH TYPICALLY IS ON THE HIGHER MOISTURE SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE, SO THAT DOES BRING CONCERN TO THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL LEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES RACE SOUTH, THAT SHOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT JUST HOW FAST DOES THAT OCCUR IS A QUESTION
MARK AT THIS POINT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE 12 HOUR RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES FOR A QUARTER INCH OR MORE UPWARDS OF 30-40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
BY THURSDAY, THE CENTER OF THE H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO START THE DAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY AND COOLER HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE A RESULT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FROM THE
LATEST NBM, BUT THERE IS CONCERN AND VERY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES FROM WEDNESDAY. THE NAM
REMAINS QUITE DRY BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ABOVE H700 AND THE
NBM/LREF 50TH PERCENTILE 6 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY ARE NIL
AREA WIDE. GIVEN SUCH WIDE MODEL VARIANCE, WILL KEEP NBM POPS FOR
NOW ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DISAGREEMENTS STILL REMAIN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE REGION WILL DEPART TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THERE ARE MODELS SUGGESTING A NEW SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN LATE
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. RIGHT NOW THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES ARE FAVORED FOR THE RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS PASSING
SYSTEM AND WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY. IN GENERAL,
IT STILL APPEARS THAT HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AND THERE COULD BE LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS EACH DAY
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT ALL SITES, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE ISOLATED SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY GET CLOSE TO KDHT/KGUY LATE IN THIS 24 HOUR
PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OUTSIDE OF ANY
INFLUENCE FROM THUNDERSTORMS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SITES DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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