159
FXUS64 KAMA 040521
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1221 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
-BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY
COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, GIVEN
THE RECENT DRYING TREND.
-WATCHING A WEATHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE PANHANDLES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK.
-HIGHS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THIS WEEKEND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN NV AND THE SALT LAKE AREA TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. OVERALL, A PRETTY STRONG CAP AT 700MB SHOULD KEEP THESE
MID CLOUDS IN CHECK AND IF ANY CLOUD MANAGES TO PRODUCE A SHOWER,
IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND GIVEN THE DRIER AIR
TOWARD THE SURFACE. TOMORROW'S HIGHS SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
TODAY, BUT JUST A TAD COOLER, AS HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM
THE APPROACHING TROUGH, AND WE'RE LOOKING AT SOME BREEZY WINDS
HELPING KEEP THE AIR MIXED. LEE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO SET UP IN
SOUTHEAST CO THAT WILL LEAD TO TIGHTENED SURFACE GRADIENTS AND
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST.
WILL JUST MAKE A SMALL FOOT NOTE, THAT WE'VE BEEN DRY FOR A
LITTLE WHILE, BUT THE OVERALL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE STILL NORMAL
FOR THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES (WHERE WE EXPECT THE STRONGEST
WINDS). THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN HOW DRY IT'S BEEN, WE SHOULD STILL
TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID DOING ANY ACTIVITIES THAT CAN CREATE A
SPARK OR OPEN FLAME. IF A FIRE WERE TO START WITH HEAVIER FUEL
LOADING UNDER THESE WINDS, IT MIGHT SHOW MODERATE RESISTANCE TO
CONTROL. SO THERE IS A MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY ONLY. THIS WILL BE ALL WIND DRIVEN AS WE EXPECT
THE RH VALUES TO BE AROUND 20 PERCENT.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
WE CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS WEATHER SYSTEM THATS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED OVER THE IDAHO
AREA AND KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT THE
OUTCOME WILL BE. LATELY WE'VE BEEN SHOWN A PRETTY WELL STALLED
BOUNDARY THAT SEPARATES THE WARM AND COLD AIRMASS, AND THAT
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GOOD
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THAT BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FOR THE
POTENTIAL TO GET SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AND WITH
PWAT'S IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE WHILE THAT BOUNDARY LINGERS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, CAN'T RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. BUT THERE'S STILL A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE THAT BOUNDARY WILL SET UP, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE DRIER
SOLUTION IF IT MOVES NORTH, TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES GETTING
BETTER CHANCES IF IT MOVES SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IMPACTED AS WELL, SINCE THERE'S SOME COOLER FALL LIKE AIR ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IT'S POSSIBLE FOR ONE AREA OF THE
PANHANDLES TO BE IN THE 60'S WHILE AN AREA WELL TO THE SOUTH IS
IN THE 80'S. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SUGGESTING THIS WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY, NOW THE SHIFT IS TOWARDS TUESDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY,
AND THEN WE TRANSITION BACK TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE
COULD HAVE MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE, AND IF THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE
ESTABLISHED, KEEPING THAT DISTURBANCE FURTHER NORTH.
WEBER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS PRESENT OVER KDHT AND KGUY AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 12Z AND 13Z RESPECTIVELY. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
VANDEN BOSCH
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...52
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