130
FXUS64 KAMA 042323
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
623 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
-STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
-RAIN CHANCES DAILY STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
LATEST 18Z OBS AND SATELLITE OBS SHOW INCREASING H850-500 GRADIENT
SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES THE
EVENING HOURS. PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SUBSIDE PAST SUNSET THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE FROM THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN H500 LOW, NOW CENTERED OVER SALT LAKE CITY, UT
WILL BRING AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE FAR NW PANHANDLES
LATER THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY FOR THE REST OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NW TO LOWER 60S IN THE SE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED H500 LOW OVER UTAH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME AN
OPEN POSITIVE TILED H500 LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE, A BROAD H500 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ADVECT GULF OF AMERICA MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS. THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SETTING UP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, AS OF
THE LATEST 04/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT
IN A SW-NE REGIME OVER THE PANHANDLES, NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AIDED LIFT FROM THEW INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHER
TROUGH AND THE SFC SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO THE ESE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF THE FRONT. BY
TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, A LLJ OF 30-40 KTS AND
CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM ANY SEVERE STORM THAT MAY FORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM HE LOWER
80S IN THE NW TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
THIS STAGNANT PATTERN OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SW-NE INBETWEEN THE
H500 TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE QUASI-
STATIONARY HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA WILL PROVIDE
DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF AIFS, ALONG WITH NBM PROBS SHOWING A RANGE OF
30-60% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF TOTALS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY REACHING 0.50". CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DRY OUT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES
AND AIRMASS BEHIND COLD FRONT MON-WED WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE, RISING BACK UP TO NEAR AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCES OF THESE IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL ARE TOO
LOW TO BE REFLECTED WITHIN ANY TAF. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE
GUSTS HAVE A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF CEASING. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
STRONGER LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN IF
THE GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT LLWS WILL STILL OCCUR JUST NOT AS
STRONG. THE WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT JUST A
LITTLE WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAY.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98
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