171
FXUS64 KAMA 071829
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
129 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
-COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH ACCOMPANIED RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING.
-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ROUNDING THE BROAD H500 HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA, IN-
CONJUNCTION WITH A MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AIDED
BY THE CURRENT EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA VICINITY, AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN, TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE CONTINUE WITH
LATEST 18Z OBS SHOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH
NOT MUCH CLIMB UP FROM THERE FOR TODAY. A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC H500 REGIME OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AZ/NM STATELINE SHOULD ADVECT NE IN THE MAIN MOISTURE
ADVECTION REGION. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER THIS EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY TO OUR WEST IN
NM, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS REACHING PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, VIVID
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. RAIN ACTIVITY COULD LINGER THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR OUT AS A LOW AMPLITUDE
H500 RIDGE FROM SOUTH TEXAS BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL STILL LINGER A FEW DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AND BUILD INTO THE
PANHANDLES REGION LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE LATEST
07/12Z GLOBAL MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HINT AT A POTENTIAL
PATTERN CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES, SO WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
IFR CIGS REPORTED TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT KDHT WITH VFR
CIGS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT KAMA/KGUY. CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE
BETWEEN VFR AND IFR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z,
BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE STEADY WITH CIGS AROUND VFR/MVFR
LEVELS THROUGHOUT 12Z. CIGS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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