782
FXUS64 KAMA 081121
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
621 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY LAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL
AID IN SUSTAINING THE ACTIVITY. FOR THE AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN,
AMOUNTS WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH WITH THE
08/00Z HREF INDICATING UPWARDS OF ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED
THAT AMOUNT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DUE THE CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREA WIDE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BECOME MORE APPARENT ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AS LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE
TIGHTENS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FIRMLY SET UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S. WAA LOOKS TO BE MAXIMIZED ON SUNDAY ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA AND THE NBM, WHICH DEPICTS THAT THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES HAS AT LEAST A 10 PERCENT CHANCE TO HIT THE
90 DEGREE MARK. THE PROBABILITY FOR REACHING 90 DEGREES FOR A HIGH
ON SUNDAY IS THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH UPWARDS OF A 60-
70 PERCENT CHANCE. BROAD SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST IS FORECAST
TO PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME FRAME,
BUT IN GENERAL HIGHS CLOSER TO AVERAGE ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO
START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS THAT THIS
PATTERN CHANGE MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION,
BUT THAT POTENTIAL IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT AT ALL TERMINALS AT THIS TIME AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z TO 17Z, DEPENDING ON
THE TERMINAL. AFTERWARD THE CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
VANDEN BOSCH
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...52
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